Japan election adds risks

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda officially dissolved the House of Representatives on Nov 16 and there will be a general election on Dec 16. However, neither the ruling Democratic Party of Japan nor the opposition parties are well positioned ahead of the elections. Japan's politics are a muddle with some political parties just debuting and some political forces in the process of planning new political parties.

Over the past six years, Japan has had six prime ministers, and the coming election is likely to usher in a seventh, as it is a long shot that Noda will win. Moreover it is highly unlikely that the DPJ will be the biggest party in the National Diet.

In the 2009 elections, the opposition DPJ defeated the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party, bringing about a "change in dynasty" and offering hope of a "two-party system" in Japan. However, the DPJ has failed to fulfill a number of policy promises it made to the Japanese people, and there are fractions within the DPJ and a number of party members have resigned.