'Very high' probability of DPRK missile launch

Seoul increases surveillance as Pyongyang moves armaments

Seoul said on Wednesday there was a "very high" probability that Pyongyang, following weeks of war threats, would launch a medium-range missile at any time as a show of strength despite diplomatic efforts to soften its position.

Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se said the Republic of Korea had asked China and Russia to intercede with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to ease tension that has mounted since the UN Security Council imposed new sanctions on Pyongyang after its third nuclear arms test in February.

But all was calm in the ROK capital, Seoul. Office work continued normally and customers crowded into city-center cafes.

Other officials in Seoul said surveillance of DPRK activity had been enhanced. Missile transporters had been spotted in South Hamgyong province along the DPRK's east coast - a possible site for a launch.

The DPRK observes several anniversaries in the next few days that could be pretexts for displays of military strength. These include the first anniversary of its leader Kim Jong-un's formal ascent to power, the 20th anniversary of rule by his father, Kim Jong-il, who died in 2011, and the anniversary, on Monday, of the birth of the Kim's grandfather, state founder Kim Il-sung.

The near-daily threats to the ROK and the United States of recent weeks were muted in the DPRK's state media on Wednesday, with the focus largely on the upcoming festivities.

State television showed mass gatherings, including women in traditional flowing robes, listening to addresses, laying flowers at monuments and taking part in a culinary competition.

The KCNA news agency said people were "doing their best to decorate cities".

In Washington, Admiral Samuel Locklear, the commander of US forces in the Pacific region, said the US military believed Pyongyang had moved an unspecified number of Musudan missiles to its east coast.

The trajectory of the missiles, if launched, is unclear as the DPRK has failed to inform international bodies - as it did in previous instances - of the path they are expected to take.

The Musudan has a range of 3,500 km, according to Seoul, which would put Japan within range and may threaten Guam, home to US bases.

ROK Foreign Minister Yun told a parliamentary hearing: "According to intelligence, the possibility of a missile launch by North Korea is very high."

Pyongyang, he said, could launch a Musudan missile "at any time from now".

The ROK-US Combined Forces Command raised its "Watchcon" status from 3 to 2 to reflect indications of a "vital threat", ROK news agency Yonhap said, citing a senior military official.

"Watchcon" 4 is in effect during normal peacetime, while "Watchcon" 3 reflects indications of an important threat. "Watchcon" 1 is used in wartime.

Yonhap also reported that Seoul, which has not joined a US-led global missile defense system, was planning to develop a system of its own. It quoted an unidentified senior military official as saying this would involve early warning radars, ship-to-air and land-based systems, to be used in conjunction with US early warning satellites.

Patricia Lewis, research director at the London-based Chatham House think tank, said: "Any incursion could escalate involving the US and Japan, China, perhaps Russia and others."

Wang Junsheng, a researcher on East Asia studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the possibility of a war initiated by the DPRK is not high, because Pyongyang would rather create a tense atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula.

"If a country really wants to start a war, it usually will not tell the experts and diplomats to evaluate it in advance, so it is a psychological and propaganda tactic of the DPRK", said Wang.

China Daily-Reuters-AFP

(China Daily 04/11/2013 page12)