The earliest the Hong Kong economy may return to normal will be at the beginning or middle of 2010, Ma predicts. Since the US and European banking systems have suffered traumatic times from the financial turmoil, it will take a long time before their economies can recuperate.

The global economy took 16 months to recover from the 1973 oil crisis and 43 months to recover from the great depression in 1929, he recalls.

"It is hard to tell when the global economy will bottom out. Not even Ben Bernanke, chairman of US Federal Reverse, is very sure," Ma said. "In my view, it will take longer than 16 months but shorter than 43 months. Using a golden mean, I think it will surely bottom out in the middle or the start of next year."

(HK Edition 06/26/2009 page4)