A recent survey by JPMorgan Asset Management shows that about 55 percent of investors interviewed see a continuous bull-bear fight in the Hong Kong market, while another 44 percent believe that the bear market has not ended and the market will continue to adjust. Parker Zheng / China Daily

New poll shows confidence hits 78-month low amid unnerving stock markets

Hong Kong's retail investors have become increasingly gloomy over the city's economic outlook as volatility in the global stock markets continues, according to a new survey.

A quarterly survey of investor sentiment conducted by JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM), designed to reflect the outlook and behavior of experienced investors over the next 6 months, showed that their mood has plunged to a six-and-a-half-year low, the fund manager said on Monday.

With the investor confidence index dropping to 95 in the third quarter of this year - from 123 in the second quarter - it's the first time the gauge has fallen below the neutral level of 100 since the first quarter of 2009.

The index ranges from zero to 200, with a reading exceeding 100 indicating a positive outlook.

"The latest findings suggest that the wild global stock-market ride is casting a shadow over investor confidence. Some 55 percent of investors see a continuous bull-bear fight in the Hong Kong market, while another 44 percent believe that the bear market has not ended and the market will continue to adjust," said Karen Cheng, vice-president of private bank distribution at JPMAM.

Such pessimism can be indicated by the overwhelming perception that the benchmark Hang Seng Index (HSI) will trade lower in the coming six months, as investors take stock of the staggering 6-percent, one-day dive in the SAR's benchmark stock gauge in early July - its steepest drop since the global financial crisis of 2008.

Amid the shaky confidence, more investors are opting for capital preservation - 13 percent compared with a mere 3 percent in the second quarter - the survey showed, suggesting a low appetite for risk.

Although the slowdown in the Chinese mainland economy remains a primary concern for local investors, along with volatile equity markets, the mainland market is still perceived as offering the highest potential for growth this year, followed by Europe and the US, according to the survey.

Under the Hong Kong-mainland mutual fund recognition program, nearly one quarter of investors are still optimistic about fund investment opportunities on the mainland.

Yet, Hong Kong, which used to rank second as a promising market with great growth potential in previous surveys, has lost its crown and has been downgraded to sixth place.

Although the latest poll tends to paint a gloomy picture, Ben Luk, global market strategist at JPMAM, believes that Hong Kong investors may have recouped some confidence as the local stock market has now moved sideways following a bumpy ride in the past few months.

Hong Kong shares reversed earlier gains to close slightly lower on Monday. The HSI slipped 0.15 percent to 23,116.25, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index nudged 0.05 percent higher.

sophia@chinadailyhk.com

(HK Edition 10/27/2015 page8)