Lu Baifu

I. Historical reflection on China's advancement from decline to rise in the 20th century

1. The Chinese people are greeting the advent of the new century with full confidence. A review of the historical process China has undergone in the past century is both saddening and encouraging. It is saddening to look back upon the first half of the century when China moved downhill, and encouraging to review the second half when China's national strength has grown stronger from day to day. One hundred years have elapsed, during which the Chinese people have managed, after suffering numerous hardships, to turn a China with weakness, poverty, political corruption and poor life into a new China with national unity, political cleanness, developed economy, and social progress. The programme for the construction of China conceived by Sun Yat-sen, the great revolutionary pioneer, at the beginning of this century has not only been fulfilled, but also substantially surpassed in New China. China has now entered the ranks of the nations in the world with the admirable image of a big country.

2. The most important thoughts on the reason why China has managed to rise from decline and advance into preliminary prosperity in the 20th century can be generalized into two sentences: a country will be attacked if backward in economy and invaded if lax in politics, and will become strong only by revitalizing its economy and independent only by building a clean government.

We can perhaps get five conclusions from our experience and lessons in the past 100 years so as to lay the ideological foundation for China's development in the new century. These conclusions are:

Firstly, China must have a firm nucleus of political leadership and a common national political objective if it hopes to achieve true independence and prosperity. This nucleus is the Communist Party of China, and our common national political goal is to take the socialist road of common wealth.

Secondly, the truth of China's powerful economy lies in the fact that it has devoted incessant efforts to the development of its social productive forces. Through development of social productive forces, it has established a complete national economic system, constantly increased its comprehensive national strength, and strengthened its national defense ability on the basis of its economic strength.

Thirdly, the motivating force behind China's economic and social development is its vigorous boost of effective reforms according to the principle of "the three conducives", constant creation of systems, and establishment of new mechanisms and systems meeting the demand of socialist modernization and the law of massive production.

Fourthly, China's future lies in the education of its people and the improvement and development of civilization. It is an inevitable road for our social progress to create a socialist new culture with Chinese characteristics by relying upon the excellent culture of the Orient as the basis and integrating all progressive results of civilization in the world.

Fifthly, the key to the enhancement and elevation of China's international position lies in the adherence to the national policy of maintaining independence and keeping the initiative, persistent efforts in opening-up and participation in the process of economic globalization, constant efforts in promoting peace and development, and maintenance of world peace by uniting with all countries treating our country equally.

II. New challenges faced by China in the 21st century

1. The 21st century will be different from the 20th century. It will be a century of competition. Large-scale economic and political disintegration and regrouping will appear throughout the world, therefore, an era with even greater challenges is approaching. The characteristics of the competitions will be reflected in the following four aspects:

Firstly, competition in the level of national economic development and comprehensive national strength.

Because of the uneven development of the world economy in the 20th century, the economic gap between the Eastern world and the Western world, the southern part and the northern part has noticeably widened. More and more countries in the east and the southern part of the world have won independence and become ever more independent politically, their call for economic independence has become louder and louder. The struggle for gaining control and getting rid of control between developed countries and underdeveloped countries has centered mainly on the economic front. Underdeveloped countries have to become economically independent before they can achieve true political independence. For this reason, the struggle for the establishment of a new economic order will become all the more fierce.

Secondly, competition in the national level of development and application of science and technology.

The 21st century will be one for mankind to move from an economy in kind toward a knowledge-based economy. Scientific and technical advancement will become the basis for and the primary motivating force behind the development of the human society. In a certain sense, the focal point of economic competition between countries will be the elevation of the level of advancement and application of science and technology. Production factors including land, labour, resources and capital will continue to be the basis of economic competition. More importantly, intellectual factors with science and technology as the core will become the most important factors in economic competition. For this reason, development of science and technology and elevation of the level of application of science and technology will be the precursor of economic development.

Thirdly, competition in political appeal and social cohesion.

Ideological struggles have been extremely fierce in the 20th century with the elimination of political ignorance and awakening of political awareness of the underdeveloped countries. With the disintegration of the socialist system and the change in the world pattern, these struggles will center more in the political appeal and social cohesion of the countries in the 21st century. Developed countries have been trying all means to gain political control over and social penetration into underdeveloped countries in a new manner and in the name of "democracy," "human rights" and other values. As the situation stands, the realization of political appeal, social cohesion and national unity will be the prerequisite for achieving the objectives of national struggle under the new situation.

Fourthly, competition in the overall national military strength and national security.

Of the competitions in the world in the 21st century, trials of strength between nations will still stand in the spotlight. For this reason, the role of the state will tend to become stronger. Military strength will be relied upon as a backup force for the maintenance of national independence, economic development and social security; and for guaranteeing smooth international exchanges on an equal footing. A nation can achieve political, economic and social stability only when it has secured a strong national defence and security system.

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