By the Development Research Center of the State Council and Compiled By Liu Peilin

Research Report No 92, 2013

Abstract:

Through analyzing the practices of 18 countries that account for 80 percent of the world's total emissions and China's economic growth in the coming years, the report predicts China's total carbon emissions in the next decade.

The total carbon emission depends on economic growth, energy intensity and carbon intensity. The research shows that despite a slowdown, China is expected to grow at an average 7.1 percent annually in the next 10 years.

Compared with comparable stages of development for developed countries, the energy intensity in China is not very high. However, China has already set an ambitious goal to cut down on carbon intensity. The reduction of China's energy intensity and carbon intensity will slow down the growth of the country's total carbon emissions. China's carbon emissions will not peak in the next 10 years.