By Li Jianwei　

Date: 2004/03/09

Abstract: 　　

In 2003, the Chinese economy reached the peak in the short cyclical swings. Therefore it is expected to see a period of contraction in the cycle in 2004 with a minor decline in the growth rate, which is likely to be about 8.7% in the first quarter, and reach an average rate of around 8.4% throughout the year. However, the accelerated growth in consumption is likely to result in a moderate inflation in the second half of 2004.