By Zhu Hongming, Institute of Financial Research of DRC

Research Report No 65, 2015 (Total 4750)

Abstract:

This paper holds that moderate contraction of social financing scale in the new normal is considered reasonable. In the new normal, leverage ratio would not witness a tendency of increase in the next few years but generally remain stable, which is the key to get through throes of structure adjustment and accords with experience drawn from both home and abroad. Against the backdrop of 2015, two kinds of leverage ratio scenarios are given in this paper: an unchanged leverage ratio and an increasing leverage ratio but with the margin narrowed down to half the average increase of previous three years. The calculation results show that social financing scale may keep declining in 2015 while such decline accords with the law of market and the logical of new normal. Meanwhile, social financing increment scale of first quarter of 2015 slides down but still stays at reasonable range. As for the contraction of social financing scale, the macro-control departments should, instead of taking undue measures, look at the issue in light of the background of new normal, take the initiative to adapt to this kind of change and lead to structure optimizing of social financing scale.