By Sun Zhiyan

Research Report Vol.19 No.1, 2017

As structural transformation deepens in China, economic activities clearly tend to differentiate among different regions and the spatial distribution of such activities is being reshaped. Population is one of the fundamental factors of regional economic development and its spatial distribution has also changed significantly in this process. Such changes will exert important influence on the economic development, city systems, spatial distribution of demand for public resources, and the gaps between various regions of the country. If we fail to respond to such changes with appropriate policies, new problems and conflicts will probably arise. This report conducts an in-depth analysis on the spatial population distribution of the Chinese population over 2010-2015 with data obtained in the 2015 1% population sample survey covering 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities[] and the sixth population census in 2010. The aim is to have a more accurate understanding of the trend of spatial population distribution and to adjust our regional policies in a timely manner.

I.Characteristics and Trends of Spatial Population Distribution in China

Compared with the previous stage of development, the current stage in China sees the spatial population distribution in the country change in close connection with the in-depth adjustment to the division of labor in the global economy and the differentiation of economic development in different regions of the country. Moreover, as China has entered the middle to late stage of industrialization, the urbanization process has gradually slowed down and the direction of population flow, as well as the overall population distribution, has showed new characteristics and trends. These can be seen mainly in the following four aspects:

1.Population is moving increasingly to Central and Western China and the Spatial Distribution is more Balanced

Among all large regions in China, central China and the southwest saw significant population growth during 2010-2015, while the northeast witnessed a net decrease of nearly 300,000 from 2014 to 2015. In terms of the share of each region in the total population, changes were much milder during 2010-2015 than during 2005-2010 (See Figure 1).

However, the relative changes between different regions are worth noting. First, the trend reversed in the Yangtze River Delta and the southwest. The share of the Yangtze River Delta in the total population first grew and then declined, while that of the southwest first decreased and then rose. Second, the share of the northwest kept dropping over the ten years with a growing margin as China entered the normal. This means despite the diminish of massive population flow between regions, the direction of the flow as well as the resulted spatial population distribution has changed as economic development in each region takes on new trends. Generally, people have started to move back to central China and the southwest. Among the three major city clusters, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region saw the sharpest growth in its population share during 2010-2015, while the share of the Pearl River Delta remained stable. This shows that more people are moving towards the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region than to the other two city clusters.

2.Population Trend differs clearly among Different Cities with Net Decrease seen in some Cities

As for the changes in permanent population of cities in different regions[], during 2010-2015, the trend differed greatly among the 287 cities of China above prefecture level[]. Up to 240 of them saw population growth with the sharpest increase occurring in the four municipalities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Chongqing, adding a total of 7 million people which accounted for 18.7% of the total population increment. Significant population growth was also seen in some cities of central China. Zhengzhou and Wuhan, for example, each welcomed over 800,000 new residents; and Changsha and Guiyang have also seen a growth of over 300,000. However, during the same period, there were also net declines, mainly in cities of the northeast and northwest. In particular, 22 out of 34 cities above prefecture level in the northeast, including provincial capitals such as Shenyang, Harbin, and Changchun, witnessed net decreases. The population of Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia also shrank slightly. This declining trend is significantly different from what we saw during 2005-2010 for at that time the difference laid mainly in the growth margins. This means population flow now occurs not only between urban and rural areas but also between different cities as the gap in economic development widen between cities. Generally, larger cities with steady economic growth see faster population growth, while cities with wild economic fluctuations, a relatively simple industrial structure, and heavy reliance on resources see slower or even negative population growth.

3.The Leading Edge of Provincial Capitals over other Cities within the Same Province Grows to a Large Extent as Population Concentrates more in Regional Central Cities

While population distribution is more balanced among larger regions of the country, the concentration level tend to increase within each province, establishing provincial capitals as population poles. During 2010-2015, leading cities in allprovinces but Heilongjiang achieved greater leading edges and twin leading cities were formed in Anhui, Henan, Guangdong, Liaoning, and Fujian. Among the 26 provincial capitals, all but those of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Hebei, were the top cities of their respective provinces, with the largest population growth. When comparing the changes of the population concentration levels of different provinces, which is indicated by the share of the top three cities in the total population of the province, CR3, we can see clearly that population tends concentrate a lot more. Moreover, in province where the pressure for an economic slowdown is heavier and the overall development level is lower, the concentration level is generally higher. For example, in 2015, the concentration level of exceeded 50% in Ningxia, Heilongjiang, and Jilin. In comparison, the population concentration level is lower in cities with better economic development and steadier growth. For example, in Guangdong and Jiangsu in the same year, the concentration ratio was respectively 22% and 24%.

4.Mega Cities take significantly Larger Shares and the Overall Structure of the City System has changed

As shown in Figure 2, during 2010-2015, the population shares of cities of different scales show a clear trend of polarization. On the one hand, mega cities see large population growth with the share of cities with 6 million people or more rising by about 2 percentage points and that of cities with over 20 million people up by 1.7 percentage points. In addition, three cities joined the group of cities with 9-10 million residents. On the other hand, the population share of cities with fewer than 3 million people decreased by nearly 2 percentage points and six cities were removed from this group. This means that the population flow from smaller cities to larger ones intensifies the gap in city scale widens, and the structure of the overall city system tends to focus more on large cities. ...

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