By Song Zifeng, Research Team on “Changes in the International Economic Pattern and Choice of China’s Strategies”, DRC

Research Report, No.87, 2018 (Total 5362) 2018-5-18

Abstract: The global pattern of industrial division is not simply an existing status quo, but more importantly a process of constant adjustments. This paper, based on the analysis of the key variables, reaches the following conclusions. Firstly, the innovation and application of new technologies will be accelerated in the next 15 to 20 years. Secondly, competition and game are expected to concentrate among developed countries and a few developing countries, with limited growth space for latecomers. Thirdly, the competitive edge of the developed countries is likely to be further enhanced. Fourthly, country specific economic studies will have a probably greater importance. Meanwhile, the low-probability events are not to be ignored the least such as the social turbulence resulting from the social reform far lagging behind the technological reform, and the tripling effects caused by major industrial information security accidents. China has gained certain strengths in the new technology tide, but there are still obvious weak links. Exercising greater international influence by China’s industrial development does have opportunities, but the long-term negative impact of fast domestic industrial transfer warrants our caution. China has the unique advantage of a super-large-scale and multi-level domestic market, but its development is still faced with many hindrances. Stronger rights of say have been attained in the global economic and trade rule and standard making, but it will still take a long and tough process to turn our hard power into soft power.

Key words: global industrial division pattern, future developments, China’s position