Issue No.10, 2018 (Total 106)

2018-12-31

China’s economic operation in November has seen increased downward pressure with the industry growth rate up by 5.4% YoY and down by 0.5% on month-on-month basis; export growth (calculated by U.S. dollar) was up by 5.4% on the year earlier with a decline of 10.2% on the month before; consumption growth increased by 8.1% YoY with a drop of 0.5% from the previous month. The decline in tax revenue has been escalating, the amount of governmental debt issuance and net funding capital has witnessed notable fall and the fiscal expenditure has experienced negative growth. The impact of employment and residential income on future consumption intention also deserves our attention. Compared with the fall of export and consumption, the investment growth began to stabilize. Investment growth from January to November has gained 5.9% compared to last year and achieved 0.2% growth than the previous month. Among that, the growth of manufacturing industry has accelerated by 0.4% compared with the previous month, infrastructure investment has rebounded and that of the real estate market has been stabilized. The net financing of private enterprises debt has been reversed. All in all, policies aiming at stabilizing the growth and prospect has achieved initial result while the effect remains to be further released, for economic downward pressure will continue in the short run. Looking into the year of 2019, the more complicated environment for economic operation, which resulted from the co-existence of both the changes of the external environment and the declined domestic demand, requires stronger sense for risks. And work should be focused on the general guidance of pursuing stability while seeking progress and make supply-side structural reform as the main line; fiscal policies need to be more encouraging to properly increase the deficit-ratio and at the meantime, expand the scale of special debt of local governments and make advance arrangement; monetary policies needs to be appropriately arranged and emphasize on its functioning mechanism so as to better serve the real economy; efforts need to be made to make up for the drawbacks in the economy and promote the effective investment into key fields; an international perspective based on market and the law should be upheld so as to cultivate a market environment which enables fair competition and the private property rights needs to be better protected so as to stimulate the dynamics of the micro-entities; the work relating to economic growth stabilization, reform promotion, structural adjustment and caring for people’s livelihood as well as risk prevention should be taken under overall plans and strive for the best policy combination and the maximum overall effect and maintain the sound and sustainable economic development as well as the stability of the whole society.