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G-8 must take steps now to fight global warming

(China Daily)
Updated: 2008-07-02 07:40

Beset by so many agonizing problems, the Earth is screaming for help. Amid increasingly disturbing signs of the planet's woes, leaders from the Group of Eight countries will gather in the Lake Toyako resort in Hokkaido next week for their annual summit.

As crude oil prices continue to rise, much of the talk among international pundits is about "the third great oil shock". Grain prices are also soaring, causing a "food shock" across the planet.

Until recently, it was widely expected that global warming would be the biggest and almost sole focus of the Lake Toyako summit. As the twin travails of soaring oil and food prices are worsening by the day, however, the discussions at the gathering are likely to be less focused on climate change.

Still, global warming remains the most important challenge facing the world's top policymakers. That's partly because creating an effective policy response to the challenge of harmful climate change will also help remove fundamental causes of other serious problems.

One psychological factor behind skyrocketing crude oil prices is the widespread fear that the world will run out of underground oil reserves in the not-so-distant future. The effects of this psychological factor will weaken if nations demonstrate a strong commitment to building a society less dependent on oil and other fossil fuels.

Among the factors that have driven the sharp climb of grain prices in recent months are droughts in many agricultural countries. Since global warming makes droughts worse and more frequent, stemming the rise in the Earth's temperature is vital for preventing such damaging dry spells.

There are certainly legitimate concerns that increased production of biofuels, which are touted as green alternatives to oil and other fossil fuels, may further drive up food prices.

From a long-term perspective, though, halting global warming to protect farmland is crucial for solving the problem of surging food prices.

It will also be essential to secure enough food supplies.

At the root of the world's energy predicament is the mass consumption of fossil fuel since the Industrial Revolution. The warming of the Earth's surface caused by modern society's heavy dependence on fossil fuels has exacerbated the food problem.

These are the multiple challenges confronting the world. What the world needs to do now is to take a big step toward eliminating the root cause of all these nagging problems.

Progress in such efforts will not just resolve economic problems but will also help nip potential international conflicts in the bud and build world peace.

Former British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett, who has contributed to spreading the term "climate security", described the dire situation of the world during a symposium on environmental problems.

Since the beginning of human history, wars have been fought repeatedly over limited resources like land, water, food and fuels, Beckett said. But we are now in an unprecedented situation in which almost every area on the Earth is under such pressures concurrently, she argued.

Sea levels rise. Farmland decreases. The world map of epidemics of infectious diseases changes. All of these potential problems are believed to be among the evil effects of global warming. These disastrous changes could trigger massive population migrations, generating new refugee crises and regional conflicts.

Effective efforts to stem global warming are indispensable to help prevent such destabilization.

One immediate question concerning the fight against global warming is how much progress will be made at the G-8 summit at the Lake Toyako resort.

During last year's summit, held in Heiligendamm, Germany, the G-8 leaders agreed to "consider seriously" the goal of halving world's greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The meeting of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change held late last year produced an international agreement to complete by the end of 2009 a new framework for tackling global warming.

The new framework is supposed to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, whose first commitment period obliging industrialized countries to reduce CO2 emissions expires in 2012.

At the Lake Toyako summit, the G-8 nations must at the very least adopt a formal international goal of halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. In addition, they should make clear a medium-term target for ensuring the achievement of the long-term goal.

The goal of halving the world's emissions of CO2 and other heat-trapping gases by mid-century is based on projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading international scientific authority on the subject.

The IPCC's key report laid out a scenario on how to prevent global warming from damaging all parts of the world.

What is important about this report is that it not only included reduction targets that must be carried out by 2050, but also explained when growth in global greenhouse gas emissions must be stopped.

To attain the goal for 2050, the world must slow emissions growth and reverse the trend by around 2020, according to the report. These two measures are inseparably linked goals.

The year 2050 will be in an age that belongs to our children and our grandchildren. But the current working population will be still active and play leading roles in society in 2020. That's why it is so important for the world to now commit to achieving a medium-term target.

What is troubling is the discord between the United States and fast-growing emerging countries over the question of sharing the burden in anti-warming efforts among industrial and developing nations.

It is now important to set clear global targets for emission reductions. The debate on how the burden should be shared between industrial and developing countries should come after the goal is established.

The framework for burden sharing should not be a fixed one. It is quite possible that some of today's developing countries will join the ranks of industrial nations in several decades.

The best possible way to distribute the burden should be figured out by taking such economic dynamics into account.

The debate at this year's G-8 summit on global warming will be held with the upcoming departure of US President George W. Bush from the political scene in mind.

The discussions could fail to pick up steam this year because of expectations that the next US president will address the global warming issue more aggressively than Bush.

With the root cause of all the planet's woes becoming increasingly clear, however, this year offers a great opportunity for the G-8 leaders to make a resolution to bring the Earth back from the brink of a downward spiral triggered by the world's addiction to fossil fuels.

We strongly hope the G-8 leaders at the lakeside resort will issue a powerful declaration of their will to tackle this challenge head-on with specific and convincing numerical targets.

The Asahi Shimbun

(China Daily 07/02/2008 page9)