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Prophets of doom exposed

(China Daily)
Updated: 2008-07-25 07:30

The doomsday economists and experts should reflect on their comments and forecasts, many of which have turned out to be untrue, irresponsible and misleading, says an article in China Youth Daily. The following is an excerpt:

Statistics jointly released by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the sales prices for newly-built and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide rose 10.1 percent and 8.9 percent respectively in the second quarter. The paces of increase were less compared with the first quarter; they contrast sharply with the real estate doomsday theory that has been constantly advocated by experts in the past few months.

Gossips, if spread by experts, can easily cause alarm among ordinary and unprofessional people and leave them confused. Fortunately, here came the release of the statistics by the government departments.

Last Saturday economist Zhao Xiao said at a real estate forum that the housing price in China was on the edge and was likely to dive just like the bearish collapse of the country's stock market. His alarming story was pessimistic, but quite contrary to the reality common people have been experienced. But the problem is common people are not professional enough to filter the many stories by one alarmist after another like Zhao.

Meanwhile, it is really ironic how those experts would face the newly released numbers.

Furthermore, there may be something else we need to think about more seriously. What evidence do those alarmists have? Have they distorted the facts intentionally? So far, the only obvious "evidence" is the intimate relationship between those experts and real estate developers.

True, housing prices in a few cities like Shenzhen have decreased, but that is just exceptional in the overall scenario of hosing prices surging across the whole country. Even if a universal price decrease happens, it should only be a benefit for people suffering from the speculative hosing industry, but not an excuse for worrying about the end.

Only those experts need to be self-respecting. Next time they may not have the same level of credibility because of too many astounding opinions.

(China Daily 07/25/2008 page8)