OPINION> Commentary
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OPINION> Commentary
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Deeper ties the path to harmonious future
(China Daily)
Updated: 2009-04-03 07:42 Joseph Nye, professor of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, is the creator of the theory of "soft power". He was interviewed by Masters degree student Ying Carol Yu recently. Nye gives his thoughts on issues including China's Soft Power and Sino-US Relations. Following is second part of the interview. The broad outlines of the current US administration's China policy welcomes China as a responsible stakeholder and accepts the rise of Chinese power. But it is important to realize that the US does not want to see China split, whether it is over Tibet or over Taiwan. There is an acceptance of Chinese sovereignty. The change of Taiwan leaders from Chen Shui-bian to Ma Ying-jeou is a very good step. Chen was taking risks, which are not good for China, US or Taiwan. The American position has been quite consistent across administrations - no independence for Taiwan and no use of force by China. The US has a broad national interest in maintaining good relations with China. But the US does not have a national interest in helping Taiwan become a sovereign country. It may be possible to negotiate some framework to solve the cross-strait problem.It is the one country that is the important part. The future of a balanced economic relationship is going to require some adjustment on both sides of China and the US. One productive way to address this problem is the kind of strategic economic discussions that occurred between the US and China. These are good steps in the right direction. But we'll probably have to go further, because obviously those discussions didn't resolve the problems. You have to go beyond just the issue of currency value and currency manipulation, and ask how to set up a stable framework where there is successful trade between the US and China, but also a balance of trade between China and other countries. In the short run, in the next year the US will be disadvantaged by the recession, but China still needs to export to American markets in order to maintain its prosperity. There is still going to be interdependence between the two countries. Whenever there is a recession, jobs are lost and protectionism tends to increase, either for Republican or Democratic administrations. So issues such as the value of the renminbi, subsidies for Chinese exports, what is happening in terms of American employment as a result are likely to be contentious during the recession. Even though China's power is rising quickly, on the other hand, China's power should not be exaggerated. In per capita terms, China is still in the lower middle-income range. Its GDP per capita is only 12 percent of that of the US. Furthermore, China lags far behind the US in military power, and lags behind in "soft power". In the long run, there are strong common interests in both countries, which if we are wise in the way we handle some of the contentious issues, we can have a good US-China relationship. By and large, the picture of the future, in which US and China are able to cooperate, is the dominant picture. Americans and Chinese must avoid exaggerated fears. Perhaps the greatest threat to the bilateral relationship is the belief that conflict is inevitable. The fears of China in the US are exaggerated. The more there is contact and open communication, the more an understanding of China develops, and thus the less these fears grow. One of the things I always believe is useful is military-to-military contacts. Also, exchange programs with leaders are very important, as well as journalists going back and forth. As people know and understand China better, they are less suspicious. So in that sense, having more contacts between peoples and having more understanding of problems in China may make Americans see things in a broader context. So part of the Chinese soft power is increasing others' knowledge of China and understanding of the problems that China faces. For all of its great successes, China still faces a lot of problems. It has lifted 400 million people out of poverty since 1990, but another 400 million remain mired in it. Along with enormous inequality, China has a migrant labor force of 140 million, severe pollution and rampant corruption among other problems. So in that sense, if people have a picture of China, which is more accurate and more deeply based, it helps to put some of the negative stories of China in the media in a broader context. So it is important for both Americans and Chinese to have a positive view of the future. Maintaining good US-China relations will be a key determinant of global stability in this century. This interview is part of the project called "China in the Eyes of Harvard- Interviews with Experts on China Issues at Harvard," organized by Professor Zhang Guanzi, Director of Council, Humanities and Social Sciences Research Center of Youth in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and visitingscholar at the Kennedy School. This project has interviewed 40-50 prominent professors at Harvard on their views of China. The results of the interviews will be compiled into 2 books, with the Chinese version published by China Social Sciences Press and the English version published by Harvard University Press. (China Daily 04/03/2009 page9) |
