It's difficult to predict what direction public opinion on the Internet will take when the issue is highly controversial; in this case a rich brat running over an innocent pedestrian in Hangzhou and the subsequent court verdict.

Many expected the debate to be centered on the "fairness" of the verdict. On Monday, a court in Hangzhou handed down a three-year sentence to Hu Bin, the 20-year-old culprit.

But soon, new threads emerged from the debate. Some netizens reported a "new finding": The youth tried in court was not Hu Bin. Netizens made painstaking comparisons between the youth's and Hu Bin's photographs taken on and before the day of the accident on May 7. The shapes of their faces, hands, cheekbones, jaws and ears all were put to scrutiny.

Many were convinced there was a fraud, though others believed the youth who appeared in court was indeed Hu Bin, only that he looked chubbier than two months ago. An online quick survey on Phoenix TV's website shows more than 12,000 people are convinced they are not the same guy. Only 210 say it was Hu Bin who was present in court.

The doubts didn't die even after the court denied the allegations, saying it was ridiculous to even think such a thing could have happened. Hu Bin looks different because of a more sedate lifestyle in custody.

Common sense tells us, it's unlikely that a swap took place. It would have been an incredible stunt if Hu Bin's family and police chose to do so. The case has been followed intensely by the public, and hence it would be too risky for anyone to even try to fool so many people.

But few people online believe in this train of thought. And this is not the first time netizens have ignored official explanations in controversial cases. They tend to think negatively of the intentions and actions of most people or organizations that are involved in a controversy.

Zheng Yefu, professor of sociology in Peking University, said recently that Chinese nowadays were inclined to interpret public incidents in terms of a "conspiracy theory". They see almost every event, especially those that lack transparency, as being mired in conspiracy. They are not convinced even after official clarifications are made. This attitude has played a part in helping spread rumors and inciting public anger over many mass incidents, which have not been properly explained by the authorities.

It's true that there have always been people who create and spread rumors. But the reason why people choose to believe the darker side of a story needs to be investigated. Many people tend not to believe in official versions because they have been fooled before. For example, after the initial investigation into Hu Bin's case, police said the driver was traveling at 70 km/h. But later a forensic analysis showed his car was traveling between 84 and 101 km/h on the road, where the speed limit is 50 km/h. That could be the reason why many people believe police could have helped swap Hu Bin for another youth.

To counter the conspiracy theory, it is imperative that authorities issue accurate information in a clear and timely way, especially while dealing with public incidents. And if they want to really deny a rumor, they have to provide solid evidence or say they would do so, instead of merely rebuking the public for having doubts. In the absence of substance in their explanations, words such as "ridiculous" used to describe public feelings will not dissuade eager people from trying to know the truth.

E-mail: yyao1119@gmail.com

(China Daily 07/23/2009 page8)