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Cross-Straits relations after Ma’s election to the KMT chairmanship

By Zhang Hua (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-08-31 14:59

Since Ma Ying-jeou was elected the leader of Taiwan in 2008 after eight rocky years of Democratic Progressive Party's rule led by Chen Shui-bian, the island's relationship with the Chinese mainland has changed dramatically. Ma, who advocates closer relations with Chinese mailand, reached out to Beijing and relations quickly improved.

Clearly, Taiwanese politics – and particularly the island's senior leadership – plays a key role in cross-straits relations. That makes Ma's July 26th election as chairman of the ruling Kuomintang party especially interesting.

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Ma will formally succeed Wu Poh-hsiung on September 12th, and it is widely accepted that this will help create new momentum for increasing cross-straits ties. The conventional wisdom says this will strengthen Ma, by enabling him to draw more support from the KMT for his policies in the island's "Legislative Yuan," where the KMT holds a majority. In the long term, a meeting between Ma and Hu Jintao, general secretary of the Communist Party of China, as heads of the two ruling parties, may even happen.

But are these expectations realistic?

While Ma's new position will certainly enhance his power, that is not at all the same thing as an upgrade in cross-straits relations. Ma is unlikely to be more positive about cross-straits relations than Wu, or at least not dramatically so. And the main factors that restrict the development of the cross-straits relations still exist, and are unlikely to shift in the foreseeable future.

First, the basic structure of the island's political situation remains unchanged. Although the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was weakened in recent elections because of corruption cases surrounding Chen Shui-bian, the opposition still commands roughly 40 percent support within the island.

As a result their ability to interrupt the peaceful development of the cross-strait relations should not be underestimated. Unsurprisingly, the DPP has strongly criticized Ma's pro-engagement mainland policy, accusing him of trying to "sell Taiwan," and claiming that he will become a dictator like Chiang Kai-shek.

In addition, improvement of the cross-strait relations is not in line with interests of US or Japan.

It is true that the US and Japan share more interests with the mainland, especially in the current financial crisis. However, from the old perspective of cold-war thinking, the US and Japan still consider Taiwan a key link in a Southeast Asian island chain to contain the Chinese mainland.

Indeed, the two countries have done a lot to damage peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits. In October 2008, the US sold arms worth of about $6.5 billion to Taiwan in the biggest deal of its kind since 1992. The sales included the Patriot III anti-missile system, E-2T airborne early warning aircraft upgrade system, Apache helicopters, and Harpoon submarine-launched missiles.

Masaki Saito, Japan's unofficial representative in Taiwan said publicly that the status of Taiwan had not been decided yet – a statement that clearly reveals Japan's anxiety over the improvement of the cross-strait relations.

In short, Ma's election as chairman of the KMT does not address any of the major underlying obstacles to a deepening engagement between Taiwan and the mainland. Therefore, it is unlikely to accelerate improvements in cross-straits relations.

The author is a researcher of Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The article reflects the opinion of the author only.