Japan's development dilemma

Political will is needed to learn from history, make friends with neighbors and build mutual trust in the region

Japan's political transition in 2009 did not bring stability to the prime minister's chair. Two years after the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) came to power, a third DPJ leader will be sworn in as prime minister. Prime Minister Naoto Kan confirmed on Friday that he would resign as the ruling party leader. The DPJ will be welcoming a new party leader and the country a new prime minister early next week.

Japan's main problem is that its national development seems to have lost direction. The country has been disoriented for long, giving rise to political and diplomatic gaffes.

From the end of World War II to the 1980s, Japan's goal was clear: "re-industrialization". Japan experienced sharp economic growth, caught up with Western countries and, guided by the principle of peaceful development, became an advanced industrialized country.

But the country is going through the post-industrial period now and, hence, faces new problems such as consumption saturation, an aging population, slow economic growth, and rising fiscal expenditure and national debt balance. In short, Japan is in a structural dilemma of population and finance, for which political conservatism is to blame.

When globalization was adding momentum to economic growth in developed and emerging economies, Japan's conservative politicians did little to transform the country into a knowledge-based economy like the United States. The goal of all political parties, after their polarization and recombination, appears to be seizing power and remaining entrenched there.

This lack of direction is the result of lack of identity positioning. Since the mid-1980s, Japan has been using its economic might to proclaim itself a "political power". The end of the Cold War further consolidated political conservatism in Japan. Leftist parties became divided and political parties' thoughts began converging.

To overcome its problems, Japan has to achieve real "historical reconciliation" with East Asian countries and have a clear idea about its relations with the US. But Japanese society's understanding is divided on East Asia. One section justifies Japan's role during World War II and doesn't own up to the barbarity it unleashed on people in East and Southeast Asia, while the other seeks to make amends. If Japanese society cannot agree on its own history, how can it achieve "historical reconciliation" with East Asia?

On relations with the US, some Japanese people believe that in the post-Cold War era Japan should gradually break away from the US-Japanese alliance, while others say the alliance is becoming more important.

The debate over the US-Japan Security Treaty since 2009 and the U-turn of the DPJ toward its relations with the US reflect Japan's identity positioning crisis.

News coming out of Japan recently is not encouraging either.

First, it seems to have become more difficult for Japan to reach "historical reconciliation" with East Asia, because Yokohama, Okinawa and some other regions have started using history textbooks compiled by right-wing groups that deny Japan's wrongdoings during World War II and the years preceding it. A Japanese Cabinet member has even said that Class-A war criminals are not "war criminals" at all.

Second, Japan's chief Cabinet secretary not only refuses to recognize the disputes over Diaoyu Islands, but also is hell-bent on confrontation. Such negative attitudes hinder the process of China's policy of "shelving disputes and seeking common development".

Third, Japan has made China the target of the Japan-US alliance and attempts to use the "China card" to sustain it. Japan's new National Defense Program Outline and Defense Whiter Paper focus more on China, and have strengthened defense deployment in southwest Japan. Therefore, it seems Japan is interested neither in "historical reconciliation" nor in positioning the US-Japan alliance.

Since a new Japanese prime minister will be sworn in under such circumstances, he/she will face the same problems that plagued his/her predecessors.

Japan needs to be open-minded, blaze a new trail in environment and system innovation, learn from history and develop friendly relations with its neighbors. Japan can play an important role in regional economic integration. But for that, it will have to develop mutually beneficial relations with China.

According to a poll conducted simultaneously in both countries and released earlier this month, the numbers of peoples in China and Japan with friendly feelings toward each other's countries have dropped drastically after a year of turbulent relations.

Lack of mutual trust is the main stumbling block for normalizing and developing healthy bilateral relations. Japan can build mutual trust only through "historical reconciliation" and by setting aside territorial disputes for common development, both of which need prudent guidance from Japanese leaders. If Japan can take this step, it will find a way out of its current predicament.

The author is director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

(China Daily 08/27/2011 page5)