Tread with caution on Peninsula

The unexpected death of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) leader Kim Jong-il has left the international community wondering whether the country can maintain stability. In fact, that is a big challenge for the DPRK and its new leader Kim Jong-un, who is still in his (late) 20s. So can Kim Jong-un lead the country out of the difficult times?

The lack of a sufficient transition period poses two challenges for the young leader and his administration. The first is to realize his father's promise of "Opening the gate to become a prosperous and powerful country in 2012". Though the DPRK has got through economic difficulties and international sanctions for almost 20 years, its economic revival will not be easy despite some recent hints of progress on that front.

The second challenge will be to establish his political authority in the country. Western countries doubt that Kim Jong-un lacks his father's influence. But as some Russian observers say, the same doubt was cast upon Kim Jong-il, too, when he assumed the leadership in 1994. But he proved observers wrong. Under Kim Jong-il's leadership, the DPRK pulled through two decades despite the hardships.

The next five years will be very important for the DPRK. If the new leadership fails to improve the economic condition of the people, we cannot rule out the possibility of his declining political authority. But if the leadership opts for reform and opening-up, the country could see economic revival and maintain political stability.

Actually, solutions to the DPRK's economic problems are not difficult, especially if its leadership learns from China. For example, to increase food supply, the DPRK could try out China's household contract responsibility system in the agriculture sector to increase its grain output and help more people benefit from higher production.

Another determining factor for the DPRK's stability is the international community's response. Because of Pyongyang's nuclear issue, many countries under the West's leadership have imposed severe sanctions on the DPRK, which to a great extent have aggravated its economic difficulties. But after Kim Jong-il's death, the international community appears to have realized that its continued pressure could intensify instability in the DPRK, the outcome of which will be contrary to their interests.

Now almost every country hopes the DPRK remains stable. China, the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Russia and Japan, because of their different strategic objectives, also want stability in the DPRK.

But while China and the ROK want total stability in the DPRK and resumption of peace on the Korean Peninsula, the US may be looking for something different. The US wants the DPRK to be unstable to a certain degree so that it offers Washington a strategic standing in East Asia, but not so unstable as to interfere with its strategic arrangements in the region.

In other words, the US wants "controllable instability" in the DPRK, which is of great strategic value because it would give enough excuse to Washington of interfere in East Asian affairs. For example, the Cheonan incident and the exchange of fire over Yeonpyeong Island last year gave the US an unexpected opportunity to strengthen its military alliances with the ROK and Japan. So the US is making (and will make) some gains from the DPRK nuclear issue.

Besides, some measures the US has taken to deal with the DPRK are harming all sides, including the US. For example, by repeatedly pressing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program without any security or economic promises, the US has left the DPRK no room for policy maneuvering, which could make it more resolute to develop nuclear weapons.

So without a change in American strategy, the DPRK cannot see true stability. Since a too unstable DPRK doesn't serve US interests either, the US may create an atmosphere with the help of the DPRK's neighbors to keep it stable to a certain extent.

The problem is an unstable DPRK will affect China the most. The DPRK's geopolitical situation has both economic and security ramifications for China. On one hand, the DPRK's condition is related to whether China can revive its northeast provinces economically and thus balance its national development. On the other, the Western and ROK media fear that China could strengthen its alliance with the DPRK to counter the US' containment strategy.

Of course, such fears are baseless, because by doing so China would hurt its own interests. History shows that over-emphasizing the geopolitical importance of the Korean Peninsula has only got China involved in wars and made it pay a huge price. The 1895 Sino-Japanese war, the 1904 Russo-Japanese war and the Korean War in the 1950s are examples as well as lessons for China.

So China's policy on the Korean Peninsula should focus on two aspects. First, it has to prevent the situation from worsening. China ought to not only oppose any action that could intensify the situation, but also seek new solutions to the nuclear issue and persuade the international community to offer some policy choices to the DPRK. Second, having successfully developed market economy in a socialist state, China can help the DPRK with its economic reform, which is the only way the Korean Peninsula issue can be resolved to bring stability and prosperity to all.

The author is a professor of Korean Studies at Yanbian University, Jilin province.

(China Daily 12/28/2011 page9)