ROK election holds a lot of keys

The upcoming presidential election in the Republic of Korea, the last of the important elections across the world this year, will not only decide the direction of domestic politics in the next five years, but also have a major impact on inter-Korean relations, China-ROK relations, the US-ROK alliance and Northeast Asian dynamics.

The two-day registration for candidates for the December election ended on Nov 26, kicking off a 22-day campaign. With the withdrawal of independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, the tripartite race has turned into a straight contest between Park Geun-hye of the ruling Saenuri Party (New Frontier Party) and Moon Jae-in of the opposition Democratic United Party.

Apart from domestic issues, such as reviving the ROK economy, inter-Korean relations will play an important role in the election campaign. The way the ROK presidential candidates approach the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is what concerns Pyongyang most.

The DPRK lashed out at Park Geun-hye for saying that she would carry forward a "unification proposal for national community based on the order of liberal democracy" and strengthen the US-ROK alliance, and for being critical of Pyongyang's "human rights abuses" and "defectors".

As a successor of the "Sunshine Policy", Moon Jae-in's attitude toward the DPRK is more pragmatic and moderate, and Pyongyang has not commented directly on Moon's policy commitments.

After the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency announced on Dec 1 that Pyongyang planned to launch a satellite between Dec 10 and 22, the US, the ROK and Japan reacted strongly. The US State Department said a satellite launch by the DPRK would be a "highly provocative act" and a threat to security in Northeast Asia.

While Japan's Ministry of Defense said it would intercept the rocket should it pose a threat to Japan, the ROK government urged the DPRK to drop the plan. Seoul said that if Pyongyang did not drop the plan, it would cause concern among the ROK, the US, Japan and other countries.

Many think that it has become a practice of the DPRK "to do something" on the eve of presidential elections in the ROK. But this time the issue is especially sensitive, because the satellite launch could coincide with the election. ROK President Lee Myung-bak, however, told news agencies on Dec 2 that though the DPRK "has continuously tried to intervene in our elections", a launch "wouldn't have any huge impact" on the December election.

Opinion polls in the ROK show Park enjoying slightly more support than Moon. It seems the DPRK has planned to launch a satellite to let ROK voters know that Pyongyang wants the next president to change Seoul's current approach and adopt a more conciliatory policy toward its northern neighbor. The satellite launch plan could put psychological pressure on the ROK voters not to choose a hard-line president.

In fact, the DPRK would prefer to see Moon as the next ROK president, which could have a great impact on the US policy toward the DPRK.

In his second term in office, US President Barack Obama is likely to make greater efforts to resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue. Rather than imposing more "tough sanctions" on Pyongyang, Obama might "seek to improve relations" with it.

DPRK leader Kim Jong-un's focus is mainly on stabilizing the domestic political situation and improving people's livelihood. But he is equally eager to improve relations with the US and the ROK to create a stable environment to build economic development zones, which are important for boosting the domestic economy and improving people's living standards.

Pyongyang wants to see a US led by the Democratic Party and a ROK led by the Democratic United Party, for the combination could restart the ROK-led inter-Korean dialogue and exchanges. It could also prompt the Obama administration to hold dialogue with the DPRK, leading to improvement in Pyongyang-Washington ties.

Exchanges and cooperation are the main trends of today's world. They are also the key to resolving the Korean Peninsula issue. Pyongyang and Seoul should realize that taking tough positions can only harm inter-Korean relations. No matter who is elected, efforts should be made to improve DPRK-ROK ties, for that is the desire of the people on both sides. This is a crucial issue the next ROK government should realize.

Park has declared that the DPRK should apologize for two deadly "provocations" in 2010 and promise to prevent similar incidents. Though Moon has a different approach, both candidates want to resume the Pyongyang-Seoul dialogue, a policy that is more flexible than the current government's hard-line stance.

Park has also vowed to establish ROK-DPRK "Exchange and Cooperation Offices" in Seoul and Pyongyang both to facilitate talks on inter-Korean economic cooperation. She has pledged to transform a joint industrial park in the DPRK border town of Kaesong into a global industrial complex, jointly develop underground resources, provide help for the DPRK's infrastructure construction and help Pyongyang in its bid to join major international financial institutions to attract investment.

Moon has said he will carry on the policies of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations on the DPRK, but with more realistic ideas that take into consideration the current situation, unconditionally cancel the 5.24 sanctions against Pyongyang and resume the ROK-DPRK dialogue. These policy initiatives, if implemented, will be a shot in the arm for inter-Korean relations.

ROK people, politicians and media are concerned about the intensifying tensions on the Peninsula. Perhaps most people in the ROK are tired of Lee Myung-bak's tough policy toward the DPRK and hope the new government would adopt a somewhat "sunshine" policy.

People on both sides look forward to better inter-Korean ties under a new ROK president, which would eventually lead to the reunification of the two Koreas. Pyongyang, too, hopes the new ROK government steers bilateral relations out of the low ebb and toward the path of hope and reconciliation. Hopefully, the ROK election will become a new starting point for improved inter-Korean relations.

The author is a professor in international studies in Jilin University.

(China Daily 12/05/2012 page9)