Syria looks to Geneva for peace

The second Geneva conference on Syria is scheduled to begin, after months of delay, in Geneva, Switzerland, on Jan 22. Of late, some hopeful signs of a resolution to the Syrian crisis have emerged. For instance, the ongoing process of destroying Syria's chemical weapons and the broad agreement within the international community to end the conflict through peaceful means are strong examples of productive global cooperation. But despite that, it is still unclear whether the Geneva conference, or Geneva II, can yield any positive results.

To begin with, major world powers, including the United States, Russia and China, remain divided over the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Washington insists that Assad should step down as part of any political resolution, because it doesn't want him to play a role in the proposed transitional government. The Syrian opposition, too, has set Assad's departure as a precondition for attending the Geneva talks. The Syrian government, however, has dismissed such preconditions, saying that the fate of Assad can be decided only by the Syrian people.

All this will make it difficult for Geneva II to achieve any real breakthrough.

The Geneva Communique, issued on June 30, 2012, is a principled framework based on the agreement among all relevant parties to facilitate a political resolution to the Syrian crisis. One of the objectives of Geneva II is to bring the Syrian government and a broadly representative delegation of the Syrian opposition to the negotiating table in order to end the conflict, establish a transitional government and deal with other challenges facing Syria.

No wonder, the debates among the participating parties in Geneva are expected to be heated. The debates will center on the distribution of executive powers within the proposed transitional government, which, once established, will replace the Assad administration. And the replacement of the Assad government is exactly what the US wants, for it would be able to work with an Assad-less transitional government to fulfill its goals, which is indicative of a regime change.

Brokering a ceasefire between the Syrian government and the opposition forces tops the agenda of Geneva II. The Syrian government and the opposition are locked in a political and military battle, with neither side capable of winning it outright any time soon. To end the battle, the two sides need to meet half way, and Geneva II provides that opportunity. But the road to brokering a ceasefire between the two sides remains bumpy.