China's trade:Win some lose some

China will probably remain a hub for manufacturing, with the spokes radiating across the region. But whereas much of China-made products is currently exported, a growing share would be directed toward consumers at home when the driver of the economy shifts. Accordingly, the economies with well-developed manufacturing sectors and close trade links with China, such as its neighbors, should be best placed to benefit from fast-growing Chinese consumption demand.

However, some economies will probably be disappointed. Rapid growth in investment has driven up China's share of final demand for a range of commodities, including iron ore, steel and copper, benefiting industrial commodity producers the most over the last decade. But weaker investment growth ahead would pose a challenge to these commodity-exporting economies because of the reduced volumes of their exports to China and continued weakness in prices.

There are no signs to suggest that China's investment spending is about to stall. Its capital stock is still relatively less than that of many other developing economies and will continue to rise. And more of its people will move to towns and cities. But there has to be a significant slowdown in investment to direct the economy onto a more sustainable track. For example, the current pace of property construction is already good enough to accommodate the likely growth in the urban population this decade.

In fact, commodity producers should have already felt a chill. While China's imports of many commodities reached record highs in 2013, the growth of key industrial commodity imports slowed down by two-thirds compared with the past decade. A further slowdown seems to be on the cards with policymakers becoming less keen on investment-driven growth. But exporters of energy and, in particular, agricultural commodities would be less affected, with household demand for cars and food products expected to grow steadily.

Local factors will determine how well commodity producers adapt to China's structural change. Those that have channeled commodity revenues into productive investment are likely to find it easier to sustain rapid growth as commodity income growth slows down. But countries that instead used revenues to boost consumption are much more likely to experience a slowdown. The most exposed countries are those that "overspent" commodity revenues, generating current account deficits. In this context, South Africa and Chile look especially vulnerable, with Brazil also likely to face a difficult time.

In sum, the biggest winners from China's rise over the last decade will probably become the biggest losers in the years ahead. But for others, China's more balanced and sustainable economy will be welcome.

The author is China economist at Capital Economics, a London-based independent macroeconomic research consultancy.