The next US president and beyond

Uncertainty over new policies

Paul Haenle [China Daily]

Many Chinese scholars have come to the conclusion that Donald Trump is better for China (than Hillary Clinton). They like Trump because he talks about the US growing inward instead of continuing its leadership role in the world. When he says the US has exceeded its reach in the Middle East and that he will not pay much attention to Asia, it sounds good to the Chinese.

In reality, however, we have very little understanding of what Trump's China policy will look like. During the presidential campaign, he used very general and broad political rhetoric to appeal to the voters. This rhetoric worked. It got him elected. But now, he has to select his cabinet and key advisors, and devise comprehensive policies on key areas. Until that has been completed, there will be a lot of uncertainty about future China-US ties.

No one likes uncertainty, and even though many Chinese like Trump because he has indicated the US could pull back from Asia, the Chinese leadership doesn't like surprises. Trump's threat to impose a 45 percent tariff on imports from China would also threaten the interests of US exporters that need access to foreign markets, as well as US businesses that rely on commodities or products made overseas.

Other countries could retaliate in ways that are damaging to US interests. This kind of rhetoric might make voters feel better during the campaign but my own view is that such an approach will not work in practical terms. Imposing such a large tariff could actually hurt Americans as much (if not more) as China and would in that sense likely be a case of cutting our nose off to spite our face.

I do expect a tougher posture by the incoming Trump administration on issues related to international trade and commerce, including a major push for reciprocity in bilateral economic relations. But only time will tell how specifically this will be implemented.

Paul Haenle, director of Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy