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IMF: World economy to slow sharply, led by US

(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-10-08 22:38

The new projections come before a gathering of the world's top economic powers on Friday and the weekend meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The jarring financial crisis is likely to figure prominently in those discussions.

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In the United States, the economy, which grew by 2 percent last year, is projected to slow to 1.6 percent this year. Growth would screech to a virtual halt in 2009, barely budging at just 0.1 percent. That would mark the worst showing since 1991, when the country was pulling out of a recession.

"With a recession now looking increasingly likely, the key questions are, how deep will the downturn be, when will a recovery get under way and how strong will it be?" the IMF asked. Much will hinge on how effective the United States' steps to stabilize financial markets and get credit flowing more freely again turn out to be. Another important factor is whether these and other actions turn around US consumers, whose retrenchment is hurting the economy.

The IMF - and many private economists - believe the US economy will probably contract in the final three months of this year and the first three months of next year, meeting a classic definition of a recession. The economy's last recession was in 2001.

The government's bailout package is aimed at thawing lending by buying bad mortgage-related debt from troubled financial institutions. The idea is that the banks' books would then be cleaner, putting them in a better position to lend and get the economy moving.

The IMF said this effort should help to stabilize markets but even so "the process of balance-sheet repair will be long and arduous." Credit availability is likely to remain constrained throughout 2009, the IMF said.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke warned in a speech Tuesday that the economy's outlook for this year has darkened and the pain could last for some time. His remarks were seen as heralding the rate cut Tuesday.

Looking at other countries, Germany's growth will slow to 1.8 percent this year, down from 2.5 percent last year. France's growth will weaken to just 0.8 percent, compared with 2.2 percent in 2007. Britain's economy will see growth taper to 1 percent, down from 3 percent last year. Canada's growth will tail off to 0.7 percent this year, from 2.7 percent last year.

In Japan, growth will cool to just 0.7 percent, from 2.1 percent last year.

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