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Survey: Most economists see recession end in 2009

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-05-27 23:25

WASHINGTON -- More than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.

Demonstrators from the Chilean Housing Debtors Association, ANDHA, camp on the right bank of the Mapocho river to protest rising interest on their mortgages in Santiago, May 15, 2009. [Agencies]

That assessment came from leading forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics to be released Wednesday. It is generally in line with the outlook from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues.

About 74 percent of the forecasters expect the recession -- which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II -- to end in the third quarter. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010.

Related readings:  Australia best placed to survive recession: survey  How the recession tested the big banks  Global data points to recession easing  European economy still deep in recession  G7: Worst of global recession may be over

"While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing," said NABE president Chris Varvares, head of Macroeconomic Advisers. "The economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines."

One of the major forces that plunged the economy into a recession was the financial crisis that struck with force last fall and was the worst since the 1930s. Economists say recoveries after financial crises tend to be slower.

Against that backdrop, unemployment will climb this year even if the economy is rebounding, the NABE forecasters predict. Companies won't be in a rush to hire until they feel certain any recovery is firmly rooted.

For all of this year, the forecasters said the unemployment rate should average 9.1 percent, a big jump from 5.8 percent last year and up from its current quarter-century peak of 8.9 percent. If NABE forecasters are right, it would be the highest since a 9.6 percent rate in 1983, when the country was struggling to recover from a severe recession.

Some forecasters thought the unemployment rate could rise as high as 10.7 percent in the second quarter of next year. The NABE outlook from 45 economists was conducted April 27 through May 11.

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