US lobbying for Turks' aid in move on Iraq
( 2002-11-29 16:47 ) (7 )

The Bush administration is mounting a major effort to enlist the support of the new Islamic government of Turkey for a northern front if there is a war with Iraq, senior officials said Friday.

As part of that effort, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz plans to leave on Sunday for a round of consultations in Ankara, Brussels and London. Turkey is his most important stop.

Bush administration officials say that the United States could defeat Iraq without Turkey's support. But they argue that an American military campaign would be more decisive and could be executed more quickly if Iraq's military had to fight on several fronts.

They also say that the Pentagon needs to dispel uncertainty over Turkey's role in a potential conflict. There have been, in effect, two military plans by the United States: one that assumes extensive Turkish cooperation in a military campaign to dislodge Saddam Hussein's government and one that does not. Senior American officials said Washington was running out of time to settle its northern front strategy because they considered it unlikely that the Iraqi government would comply with United Nations inspections.

American officials did not say precisely what role they would like Turkey to play in a conflict. Turkey has air bases that the United States would like to use to mount bombing attacks. It also has a large army.

Asked if the United States wanted Turkish ground forces to participate in an attack, a senior administration official said Washington believed it would be advantageous to confront Iraq with as potent a military threat from the north as possible.

Mr. Wolfowitz's trip is the first of a series of high-level visits that are intended to elicit international support for the Bush administration's tough policy on Iraq. Some of these trips, like Mr. Wolfowitz's, are intended to form a military coalition. Others are intended to secure political support from nations like China that do not plan to join the fray but whose views are important.

The trips will be carried out during a crucial period. On Dec. 8, Iraq is required to submit an account of its programs to develop chemical, biological and nuclear arms and the missiles that might carry them. There are likely to be different interpretations of whether the declaration is adequate, and the United States wants to maintain a tough stand.

Besides the Wolfowitz trip, visits will be made to other countries in Europe, Asia and the Middle East by Richard L. Armitage, the deputy secretary of state; Stephen J. Hadley, the deputy national security adviser to President Bush; and Douglas J. Feith, the under secretary of defense for policy. Marc Grossman, the under secretary of state for political affairs, will accompany Mr. Wolfowitz on his trip and then proceed with his own itinerary.

Mr. Wolfowitz's first stop will be Brussels, where he will meet with NATO ambassadors. The Bush administration would like NATO members to join in Mr. Bush's coalition of nations that are able and willing to confront Iraq.

It also wants NATO to reaffirm its intention to support Turkey, which is a member of the military alliance, in the event of a war with Iraq. Article V of the NATO Charter stipulates that an attack on one member is to be considered an attack on all. Washington would like this provision to be invoked if there is a war with Iraq.

Mr. Wolfowitz will also visit London, which is the staunchest of the American allies on Iraq. The British are expected to contribute military forces for an invasion of Iraq.

But Turkey is the critical stop. The Bush administration has carried out extensive consultations with Turkey about a potential confrontation with Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney visited Ankara in the spring, but the election victory by the Justice and Development Party, whose leadership has strong Islamic views, has made it necessary for the Bush administration to start from scratch. (Before its victory, the party indicated that it would leave any decision on Iraq to Turkey's military.)

Bush administration officials are using several arguments to try to persuade the Turks to support and participate in an offensive. First, they argue that the war will be over more quickly and as a result, there will be less economic disruption if Turkey joins in the attack. Many neighboring states are willing to support an offensive if it is relatively brief and decisive and if civilian casualties are low. What they fear is a long, drawn-out conflict.

Washington is also arguing that the threat of military force will encourage Mr. Hussein to comply with the demands of United Nations weapons inspectors, though some senior Bush administration officials privately believe that Iraqi compliance is highly unlikely.

Washington is offering tangible benefits to Turkey. The Bush administration has indicated that it is prepared to give Turkey economic aid to compensate it for any losses it might sustain as a result of a Iraq war. Just how much is a matter of negotiation.

More generally, Washington argues that Turkey is likely to benefit economically if a new government is installed in Iraq and trade with Iraq expanded. Washington has also been backing Turkey's efforts to join the European Union.

The European Union is holding a meeting in Copenhagen on Dec. 12 to discuss Turkey's potential membership. Mr. Bush recently called Denmark's prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, to support Turkey's efforts to join the European Union. The Bush administration has also made it clear that it will not support a separate Kurdish state in northern Iraq, a concern for Turkey, which has its own restive Kurdish minority.

A senior administration official said he thought Washington would be able to satisfy Turkey's concerns. Still, the Turkish leadership has been contending with an array of issues, including its bid to join the European Union and a plan that Secretary General Kofi Annan of the United Nations has proposed to resolve the dispute over Cyprus, which Turkey has partly occupied since 1974.

During the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the United States carried out airstrikes from air bases in Turkey. Search-and-rescue teams were also based there.

Since the end of the war, American and British warplanes have used air bases in Turkey to patrol the no-flight zone in northern Iraq.