China's economy is expected to grow 8.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2004 from a year earlier, slowing from the blistering 9.9 per cent year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2003, a think-tank said on Tuesday.

"Growth of investment and exports is expected to slow to some degree in the first quarter while consumption could pick up," the Institute of Economic Research of the State Development and Reform Commission said.

Fixed asset investment, a rough gauge of government spending on projects like roads and power plants, was forecast to rise 22 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2004, it said in a report published in the China Securities Journal.

Exports were expected to rise around 20 percent year-on-year in the first quarter while retail sales were forecast to rise 11 percent in the three months, it said.

Fixed asset investment jumped nearly 27 per cent for all of 2003, while while exports soared nearly 35 per cent and retail sales rose 9.1 per cent.

China was likely to post a trade deficit of about US$5 billion in the first quarter of 2004 due to strong imports which could help ease upward pressure on the yuan, the think-tank said.

The benchmark consumer price index, the leading indicator of inflation, would rise about three per cent year-on-year in the first quarter.

CPI rose 1.2 per cent in 2003.

China's economy sped up late last year, growing 9.9 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter and 9.1 percent in the full 2003, beating expectations but fanning worries it may overheat.

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