Apathy, protests loom over EU's biggest election
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-06-06 17:41

Apathy and protest votes against incumbent governments look set to be the main winners when the European Union holds the biggest cross-border election in history this week to choose a new European Parliament.

From Thursday to Sunday, citizens in the 25 member states of the enlarged EU will elect 732 members of the Strasbourg-based assembly, which has growing power over a swathe of legislation from safe food and clean beaches to financial regulation.

Europe's only directly elected institution has come a long way from adolescent debating society to co-author of EU laws that govern about two-thirds of national legislation.

But these will in reality be 25 national elections, fought mainly on domestic issues, and most governments face a no-cost protest vote on a low turnout.

"In real terms, the local campaigns are dedicated a lot to national issues," European Commission President Romano Prodi told Reuters in an interview. "That is life."

The result could influence who succeeds Prodi as head of the EU executive in November, since parliament must approve the candidate nominated by EU leaders at a summit next week.

Although the leaders are also expected to agree on a first constitution for the 450-million-strong trading bloc, there is not yet a single European body politic.

Despite the injection of new blood with the accession of 10 new, mainly east European countries last month, overall turnout may barely top the record low of 49.2 percent in 1999.

When the votes are counted next Sunday, the news is likely to be grim for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin and probably Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka.

"BEAUTY CONTEST" Outgoing European Parliament President Pat Cox voiced frustration at the parochial nature of the campaign and the focus on quirky or celebrity candidates.

"Too often and in too many places, I regret to say, the European debate...is the absent partner," he said.

"In too many places, you get this mid-term test of government popularity, you get the personality 'beauty contest' that the commentariat loves to follow and play up. But Europe is struggling to express itself," Cox said.

Among major incumbents, only Spain's recently elected Socialist prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, is likely to win a confidence boost from voters delighted by his swift move to pull Spanish troops out of Iraq.

Public hostility to the US-led war has been one of the few cross-border themes in a lacklustre campaign, and could hurt governments, notably in Britain, Italy, Portugal and Denmark.

Another subject of pan-European controversy has been whether Turkey, a teeming, poor, overwhelmingly Muslim nation on the southeast fringe of Europe, should join the EU.

Conservatives in France, Germany, Austria and Hungary have campaigned on a "no to Turkey" platform, as have far-right parties in several European states.

Diplomats say that is unlikely to stop the bloc's leaders agreeing to open accession talks with Ankara in December if the executive European Commission reports in October that Turkey has met the EU's criteria on democracy and human rights.

Although there is no common economic or social policy theme, voters in France, Germany and Italy may express anger at plans to cut back state health, welfare and pension cover, driven partly by the EU's budget rules and economic reform agenda.

One key test will be whether Eurosceptical parties make significant gains, amplified by a high abstention rate.

Opinion polls show the UK Independence Party, which advocates British withdrawal from the EU, draining large numbers of votes from the opposition Conservative party, which opposes the EU constitution but not British membership.

Prodi called last week for a new "pro-European" force in parliament, grouping federalists and liberals, to counter what he called the growing influence of Eurosceptics in two biggest parliamentary groups -- the Party of European Socialists and conservative European People's Party.

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