Canadian Liberals to form minority government
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-06-29 11:21

Canada's Prime Minister Paul Martin crawled back from the edge of an electoral abyss Monday night to retain his grip on power with a minority win that gives his resurgent Liberals a fourth consecutive mandate.

But he'll need the help of at least one of his opponents - likely the NDP - if his government is to survive and run the country.

A supporter of Conservative Leader Stephen Harper watches returns come in during election night in Calgary, Alberta June 28, 2004. Canada's ruling Liberals will stay in power after Monday's federal election, but will lose their majority in Parliament and need support from the left-leaning New Democrats to govern.  [Reuters]

The Grits, buoyed by a surprisingly strong showing in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, handily beat back a challenge from the Conservatives while losing more than two dozen seats as punishment for the sponsorship scandal.

It's the first time a party has won a fourth straight mandate since Wilfrid Laurier's Liberals in 1908.

It's also a bittersweet outcome for Martin.

The result is a blow when seen from the perspective of a few months ago when heady Liberals were blithely predicting a huge majority of the 308 Commons seats.

But it's also likely to be a sweet relief after a devastating drop in opinion polls during the election campaign that pointed to a Conservative upset.

The Liberals were headed for about 136 seats, down from 176 in the last election in 2000.

It was a long way from the mighty Jean Chretien majorities of the last 11 years, but it was good enough to edge out Stephen Harper's Conservatives who were on track for about 95 seats.

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper swipes at balloons as he celebrates with supporters at his headquarters during election night in Calgary, Alberta June 28, 2004. Canada's ruling Liberals clung to power after Monday's federal election, but lost their comfortable majority in Parliament and will need support from the left-leaning New Democrats to govern. The main losers on the night were the Conservatives, who many predicted would get around 120 seats. Officials said the party had been damaged by constant attacks from Martin, who portrayed Conservative leader Stephen Harper as a right-wing extremist. [Reuters]

The NDP nearly doubled its showing to 21 seats while the Bloc ran away with Quebec, taking 55 of 75 ridings.

The New Democrat's strength means the Liberals will be able to court the party rather than rely on the separatist Bloc.

Francis Fox, a top adviser to Martin, seemed to rule out a formal coalition.

"I lived through two minority governments in my life and formal coalitions are unnecessary," he said. "I think the Canadian population would take a very dim view of a party trying to provoke the collapse of a government ... there is no formal agreement no calls to anyone."

In terms of popular vote, the Liberals captured about 38 per cent support compared to 29 per cent for the Conservatives. The result flew in the face of poll results which had the parties in a dead heat.

The NDP got about 16 per cent of the vote and the Bloc, 12.

In 2000, the Liberals had 41 per cent support while the combined Tories and Canadian Alliance - now merged as the Conservatives - got 38 per cent of the vote. The NDP had the support of just nine per cent of vote four years ago and the Bloc had 10 per cent.

It's unclear how long the new government can hang on.

Joe Clark's minority Tory government in 1979 lasted just six months before he was forced to call an election. But Lester Pearson managed to hold together two minority governments in the 1960s.

As expected, the Conservatives dominated in the West, taking most seats in the Prairies.

The Conservatives' failure to capitalize on the Liberal sponsorship troubles in the Atlantic region may have been compromised by long Maritime memories.

In May 2002, Stephen Harper infuriated Atlantic Canadians when he blamed the region's "culture of defeat" for the Alliance party's inability to elect any members from the region.

In another slap to the Tories, Scott Brison, who abandoned the Conservatives to join the Liberals, easily won his Nova Scotia riding.

Brison, aware that many voters in B.C. had not yet gone to the polls, gave an early victory speech warning Canadians that Harper would run roughshod over minority rights and impose socially conservative mores on the country

Conservative Deputy Leader Peter MacKay, who won his Nova Scotia riding, said Liberal attack ads demonizing the Tories apparently took their toll.

Martin appeared headed for an easy majority just a few months ago before he was stung by the sponsorship scandal and hobbled by an unpopular provincial budget brought down by his Liberal cousins in Ontario.

The election campaign was more about whom not to vote for rather than whom to vote for.

The Liberals hammered relentlessly at Harper as a right-wing bogeyman. The attack was unwittingly fueled by several Conservative candidates who made controversial comments about gay marriage, abortion rights, bilingualism and overruling the courts on social issues.

Harper pounded back with equal vigour about Liberal waste and mismanagement, reminding voters daily about the sponsorship scandal and the gun registry.

It was part of a carefully orchestrated attack designed to inflict maximum damage on a government already limping from the sponsorship blow.

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