Wavering voters anti-Iraq, wary of Kerry
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-09-29 09:27

In an election where most voters have already chosen sides, the presidency could be decided by a small slice of America in the mushy middle — wavering voters who are more likely than others to question President Bush's honesty and think the war in Iraq was a mistake.

One in every five voters is persuadable — including about 5 percent who tell pollsters they don't know who will get their vote and about 15 percent who say they are leaning toward one candidate but could switch to another. In past elections, as much as a third fit that description, but most of the nation was quick to pick sides this year in the aftermath of the disputed 2000 election.

It's possible many persuadable voters will stay home Nov. 2 out of frustration with their choices, but there are enough of them floating in the political center to alter the race for the White House.

"I don't want to see Bush get in, but I don't want to vote Kerry just to keep Bush out," said Grace Elliott, a 70-year-old retiree from Portland, Ore. She opposes the president's conduct of the war but says of Kerry: "He just makes me feel uneasy."

Bush and Kerry are pitching their campaign rhetoric to voters like Elliott, with the Republican incumbent calling his challenger a vacillator who can't be trusted to lead the nation at war while Kerry accuses Bush of misleading the people on Iraq and other issues.

In the AP study, 1,329 people were first interviewed Aug. 31 to Sept. 2 and then re-interviewed Sept. 21-27.

In the initial screening, 18 percent said they didn't know who would get their vote, with the rest evenly split between leaning Kerry or leaning Bush. The followup interviews found that 13 percent of the 1,329 had become committed to Bush and 11 percent to Kerry.

Of the 937 persuadable voters remaining, 58 percent said it was a mistake to go to war against Iraq. By contrast, polls of all likely voters show that less than half think the war was a mistake.

Many persuadable voters echoed Kerry's accusation that Bush let Iraq distract from the global war on terror. "It seems Osama crawled away and nothing was said about it," said Joy Phillips, 52, of Jacksonville, Fla.

But they favored Bush over Kerry on the question of who would best handle the situation in Iraq, 52 percent to 41 percent, roughly the same as all likely voters.

There was some hope for Kerry in one subsection of the 937 persuadable voters. Among the purely undecideds (about 22 percent):

_ Kerry was slightly favored over Bush on who would best handle Iraq, with more than one-fifth of undecided voters not choosing either candidate. That suggests many undecided voters are withholding judgment, perhaps until the three debates that begin Thursday.

_ They favor change more than voters leaning toward Bush or Kerry, with 54 percent saying it's worth the risk of swapping leaders in uncertain times.

"I would like to hear the debate because I'm hoping when I listen to Kerry he will tell me what his plans are" for Iraq, said Wanda Ramsey, an Owasso, Okla., retiree who had had leaned toward Kerry but is now undecided.

Among all persuadable voters — the undecided and the leaners — Bush has a lead of 40 percentage points on the question of who would best protect the nation.

"The more Kerry talks, the more I get turned off by Kerry. After Thursday, I'll know for sure, but for now it's Bush," said Marcia Vinick, a retiree from Scotia, N.Y., who voted for Al Gore (news - web sites) in 2000 and opposes the war.

Kerry holds a 2-to-1 advantage among persuadables on who would best create jobs, though the Democrat has lost his advantage on the jobs issue in polls of all likely voters.

On personality traits, only 32 percent of persuadable voters consider Kerry decisive while 79 percent attribute that quality to Bush. That tracks with polls of all likely voters.

Paula Larson, an undecided voter who used to lean toward Kerry, said electing Kerry as commander in chief "would send a signal of weakness."

Some 42 percent of persuadable voters say Bush is honest, considerably lower than he rates among all likely voters.

Persuadable voters leaning toward either Kerry or Bush say the main reason they might eventually vote for the incumbent is they have doubt about Kerry's ability to lead. Or they don't know enough about him.

On the other hand, they said the main reason they might vote for Kerry is they disagree with Bush's positions, especially on Iraq.

Among voters who moved from the persuadable column to firmly behind Bush, most cited personal qualities such as leadership.

Kerry's new voters credited his stance on issues.

Then there were voters like Robert Burch, a 52-year-old unemployed chemical engineer from Collegeville, Pa., who voted for Bush in 2000 and is now undecided. He may vote third party rather than choose between two unsatisfactory candidates.

"The lesser of two evils," he said, "is still evil."

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for the initial sample of 1,329 persuadable voters, and plus or minus 3 percentage points for the subgroup of 937.

AP and Knowledge Networks will resurvey voters in mid-October.

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