National polls split, but Kerry makes headway in states
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-10-12 09:46

National polls were split over who was leading the US presidential race, but Democrat John Kerry showed signs of making headway against President George W. Bush in the decisive state-by-state battle.

A Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll three weeks before the November 2 ballot put Bush on top 51 to 46 percent and a survey by the Rasmussen organization gave the Republican a four-point margin at 49.5 to 45.5 percent.

But a tracking poll by the Zogby International group showed Kerry, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, with a three-point edge at 47-44 percent heading into the final stretch of an acrimonious, marathon campaign.

A USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll gave Kerry a 49 to 48 percent lead over Bush among likely voters, while a poll in mid-September had given Bush a 54 to 40 percent edge.

The conflicting results highlighted a race still close to call and which shows every indication of careening to the same cliffhanger finish as four years ago when the outcome hinged on a bitter recount in the state of Florida.

"This is so much like 2000 it's scary," pollster John Zogby wrote in a commentary on his survey Sunday. "There is a lot of campaigning to go. Remember that in 2000 the lead changed several times in October."

Kerry pulled even with Bush on the strength of a commanding performance over the Republican president in their first televised debate on September 30. A second encounter last week was judged a tie and a third is scheduled for Wednesday.

PThe Democrat's most significant gains, several analysts and commentators said, were in a string of so-called battleground states that will decide the presidency on the particular US system of electoral votes.

The candidates both took their campaigns to the western United States on Monday as they geared for a final debate in the city of Tempe, Arizona that will focus on domestic issues after two rounds of fireworks on Iraq.

Bush continued to assail Kerry's position on Iraq as he campaigned in Hobbs, a small town on New Mexico's border with Texas, where the president owns a ranch.

"With a straight face, he said he had only one position on Iraq. He must think we're on another planet," Bush said.

In Santa Fe, New Mexico, Kerry accused Bush of breaking a pledge to make OPEC hike oil production, and vowed to wean US consumers off Middle East oil.

"I want America's energy future, I want America's security to be in the hands of Americans and in our own ingenuity, our own innovation not the Saudi royal family or others around the world," Kerry said, pointing to record oil prices.

Their aides, meanwhile, were busy crunching numbers and allocating resources to come up with a majority of the 538 electoral votes apportioned among the states and earned in separate, mostly winner-take-all contests.

Bush won in 2000 by five electors while losing the popular tally to vice president Al Gore by more than half a million votes, and the electoral chessboard looked every bit as tight this year.

The president seemed assured of at least 206 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, while Kerry had 214, according to an AFP analysis of various state polls.

Ten states with a total of 118 electors were up for grabs: five that voted Democratic for the presidency four years ago and five that went Republican.

Bush was on a roll before the debates, and still appeared to have an edge. But analysts and a survey by CNN showed Kerry bearing down in several swing states that could help him pull out a comeback win.

Eric Davis, a professor of political science at Middlebury College in Vermont and a presidential historian, predicted weeks ago Bush might end up with anywhere bwteen 300 and 330 electoral votes. On Monday he sounded a different tune.

Davis told AFP that Bush still had a "slight edge," but added, "I would say at this point that the winner of the election would be whoever wins two out of three of the group Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida."

State polls show Pennsylvania, which voted Democratic in 2000 and is a "must-win" for Kerry, leaning to the senator. Bush had a marginal lead in Ohio, which he took four years ago, and Florida was a tossup.

Some analysts suggested the outcome might come down to Ohio, a midwestern state with 20 electoral votes that has been particularly hit by job losses that Kerry rarely forgets to mention on the campaign trail.

"That's obviously the target state for Kerry," said Allan Lichtman, a political analyst and professor of history at American University in Washington. In recent times, no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio.

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