Europe's population will continue to decline for decades even if birthrates improve significantly, researchers have calculated. Trends towards smaller families and later motherhood mean that there are too few women of childbearing age to reverse the decline in the near future, according to an Austrian study. At present 1.5 babies are born for every European Union woman, when two births are required for the population "replacement rate" to be maintained. Even if women started to have more children again, the tendency to population decline would continue for decades, as there will be fewer parents in the next generation than in this one. The findings come from a study by Wolfgang Lutz, of the Austrian Academy of Science in Vienna, and Brian O'Neill, of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. The authors said that the changing role of women was a significant factor in the projected population decline. Many were putting off having their first child to concentrate on their education or career. (Agencies) | 據(jù)研究人員統(tǒng)計(jì)，接下來(lái)的幾十年，歐洲人口將持續(xù)減少。即便出生率顯著提高也無(wú)法改變這一狀況。 據(jù)一份來(lái)自?shī)W地利的調(diào)查表明，家庭規(guī)模的減小和婦女生育年齡增大的趨勢(shì)導(dǎo)致育齡婦女越來(lái)越少，從而無(wú)法改變近幾年歐洲人口下降的局面。 目前歐盟國(guó)家的婦女平均生1.5個(gè)孩子，而為了保持人口替代率，每個(gè)婦女至少要生2個(gè)孩子。即便從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始婦女增加生育數(shù)量，人口減少的趨勢(shì)仍將持續(xù)幾十年，因?yàn)槲覀兊南乱淮性敢獬蔀楦改傅娜嗽絹?lái)越少。 這一結(jié)論是由來(lái)自位于維也納的奧地利科學(xué)院的沃爾夫?qū)けR茨和奧地利拉克森堡的國(guó)際應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)分析研究所的布賴恩·奧尼爾調(diào)查得出的。 研究者說(shuō)人口下降的主要原因是婦女在社會(huì)中扮演的角色發(fā)生了變化。許多婦女為了工作或教育而推遲生育。 （中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)站譯） |
Updated: 2003-04-02 01:00
