TOKYO: Japan's prime minister said yesterday he wants to decide his stance by year-end on a feud over a US airbase on Okinawa island that threatens to fray the alliance.

Washington wants Tokyo to implement a 2006 agreement to relocate the Marines' Futenma airbase to another site on Okinawa as a prerequisite for shifting up to 8,000 Marines to the US territory of Guam, part of a broader realignment of US forces.

But Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said ahead of the August election that swept his Democratic Party to power he favored moving the base off Okinawa, and his two tiny coalition partners insist he should make good on those remarks.

Below are scenarios for how the feud may play out. The first two appear about equally possible, while the third looks less likely in the short-run but could well be the ultimate outcome.

Delay

Hatoyama may opt to put off a decision, risking scuppering the overall plan to move Marines to Guam by 2014 and fanning US mistrust.

Delay would boost doubts about his leadership and erode his ratings ahead of an upper house election in mid-2010, when the Democrats aim to win a majority so they no longer need to rely on coalition partners to pass bills smoothly.

Hatoyama said this week that he wanted to firm up the government stance before he and Obama attend climate talks in Copenhagen next week. But it is unclear if that means he plans to make a final decision, or outline a negotiating stance.

A meeting with Obama could backfire if Hatoyama simply intends to ask for more time, and talks now seem unlikely.

Hatoyama had suggested he might wait until after next year's upper house vote, but a wait would make resolving the feud tougher if an anti-base candidate wins a January mayoral election in Nago city, where the base would be moved under the 2006 deal.

Seek compromise

Hatoyama could float a compromise plan but options appear limited and trying to satisfy all involved risks satisfying none.

Japan's Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa said this week during a visit to Guam that moving the entire Futenma facility would be difficult. The governor of Osaka has suggested that some or all of Futenma's functions might be moved to Kansai airport in western Japan, but the practicality of such a plan is unclear.

The top government spokesman has raised the possibility of reducing the number of helicopters based at Futenma or temporarily moving off the island to lighten Okinawa's burden.

Japanese media have also floated the idea of getting the United States to promise to clean up pollution from the bases as a condition for agreeing to the planned Futenma move.

Agree to US demands

Hatoyama could implement the 2006 deal, despite a threat from the head of the small Social Democratic Party to leave the coalition if he does. That would risk a split in his coalition that could delay the passage of the budget for the fiscal year from next April at a time when Hatoyama wants to make sure the fragile economy does not slip back into recession.

Whether the Social Democrats would follow through on their threat to leave the coalition is unclear. Some Democratic Party members are already unhappy with the party and would prefer to lure opposition lawmakers to their camp to make up a majority.

Giving in to US demands could also upset voters who backed Hatoyama's calls for a more independent foreign policy, or raise questions about his judgment in sparking the dispute.

Reuters

(China Daily 12/11/2009 page11)