Despite the global finance turmoil, the retail sector locally is still upbeat about business during the National Day golden week.

Approximately 330,900 people had arrived in the city as of Monday, and more than a fourth were mainlanders.

Shopping malls expect consumers to spend more time and money this Golden Week, compared with last year.

Mega Box, which opened a year ago, forecasted a 10 to 15 percent growth in customers, but it expected only a small portion of that increase to come from mainlanders.

Marketing General Manager Czarina Man said some stores in the mall have upped their stock supply in anticipation of more mainlanders.

"We believe mainland customers will spend a large sum on children's products, such as baby food and children's fashion this year," Man said.

Elements, a mall that targets consumers with more money, isn't worried about the financial crisis. It anticipated a 20 percent increase in mainland shoppers this week, year-on-year.

Betty Leong, the chief retail development manager of MTR Corporation, which owns Elements, said: "The influence of the financial gale will not kill our customers' shopping intentions, as their consumption power is very strong".

Leong added that from May to July, when the economy started to worsen, the average consumption of a mainland customer in Elements still amounted to HK$8,000, which showed their desire to spend.

Meanwhile, local jewelers are holding conservative views on the market during Golden Week.

Luk Fook Holdings had expected sales to climb up by 10 percent in this holiday, but that forecast changed.

"We are worried about the financial turmoil, but the weak Hong Kong dollar still empowers mainland visitors to shop here," said the jeweler's executive director and financial controller, Paul Law.

He added that Luk Fook saw a 14 percent year-on-year sales growth during the first three weeks of September, particularly in gold products.

"Amid a time which investors lose confidence in the stock market, they may opt for gold, which seems to be the most cautious investment," Law said.

However, Chow Tai Fook reported a different picture.

It forecasted a 5 percent drop in sales during the National Day holiday.

"The sentiment in society has been worse and worse since more bad news broke, so we think fewer people will come shop," Regional Manager Peter Suen said.

He added that about 40 percent fewer mainland customers visited Chow Tai Fook in September, year-on-year.

Even worse, customers have spent about 10 percent less in each transaction.

In the meantime, Travel Industry Council of Hong Kong Executive Director Joseph Tung Yao-chung was confident in the market, as he did not see any tremendous influence brought by the economic turmoil.

"They come for shopping, so it shouldn't be a problem," he said.

He figured more mainlanders, particularly from the Pearl River Delta region, will visit Hong Kong as independent travelers, but fewer will join tours.

(HK Edition 10/01/2008 page1)