Unemployment rate in Hong Kong rose to 3.8 percent in the September-November period, from 3.5 percent in the August-October quarter and a further rise is expected in the coming months, the government said yesterday.

The rise in unemployment is mainly seen in the retail, construction, manufacturing, communications and import-export trades sectors.

"The rate is predictable as there have been several layoffs in the past few months. It also reflects that the impact of financial tsunami emerges gradually," said Secretary for Labour and Welfare Matthew Cheung Kin-chung.

Around 136,400 people were jobless in September-November, 4600 more than that in August-October.

The number of underemployed increased to 65,100 from 62,400, with the rate rising by 0.1 percentage point to 1.8 percent between September and November.

The Census and Statistics Department figures also showed that the total employment dropped 0.4 percent to 3,533,100, while labor force shrank to 3,669,500 from 3,678,400.

Unemployment rate started to rebound since the July-September period when the growing wave of layoffs swept through the city.

Irina Fan, senior economist of Hang Seng Bank, was not surprised by the figure and even foresaw a higher unemployment rate in the following months.

"It is in line with market consensus. We expect it to be more than 5 percent by mid-2009," Fan said.

Charles Li Kui-wai, economics and finance associate professor at City University of Hong Kong, said the impact of financial turmoil has just started to be reflected in the unemployment rate.

He predicted the figure to surge to at least 4 percent by first quarter of 2009.

"After Christmas and Chinese New Year, there may be more layoffs in the retail sector," he said.

Yet he remained positive that the jobless rate would not move up to 8.5 percent as in 2003.

"Unlike during SARS, now every industry has prepared for the economic downturn. In addition to the government's economic boosting initiatives, I hope the unemployment rate can be kept under 5 percent," he said.

Despite the job vacancies in the private sector last month plunging 24 percent from October to around 45,000, Cheung said by next year the government would create 60,000 jobs through starting major infrastructure and minor improvement projects, as well as civil servants recruitment.

Two large-scale job fairs will be held in Tin Shui Wai on January 5 and 6. Over 4,000 vacancies from various industries will be provided.

"Job preservation and creation top the government's agenda. We should face the challenges posed to the labor market bravely under the government's efforts," Cheung said.

(HK Edition 12/19/2008 page1)