HONG KONG: The city's exports in December fell 12.8 percent by volume from a year earlier as the global economic downturn reduced demand.

The decline worsened significantly from November, when exports fell 7.1 percent, year-on-year.

Excluding Germany, exports to all of Hong Kong's major markets dropped, according to the Census and Statistics Department.

The latest figures showed that exports to the United States dropped by 19.6 percent by volume in December, while exports to the mainland slumped 10.5 percent.

The global slowdown also hurt demand from Japan and the United Kingdom, as Hong Kong's exports to the two countries fell by 10.2 and 12.5 percent, respectively. Exports to Germany rose slightly by 1.9 percent.

December's double-digit decline in exports was Hong Kong's first in seven years, according to government figures.

Irina Fan, a senior economist at Hang Seng Bank, expects Hong Kong's exports to further deteriorate in the first quarter this year.

"Some factories on the mainland remain closed after the lunar new year holiday," she said. "Hong Kong's capital-goods exports to the mainland will likely decrease."

Alex Fong, Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce's chief executive, said consumer sentiment is still weak in Europe and the US, so it will be a difficult time in the coming months for firms. "I can't see the number of orders rebounding soon," he told reporters yesterday.

Fan agreed that the first half will be a very difficult time. "We expect exports to contract at a double-digit rate in the first half," she said, "and we hope that the situation will improve in the second half if government measures can stabilize the global economy."

Hang Seng Bank estimates a 7.5 percent contraction in exports in 2009, which would be the worst since a 7.4 percent drop during the Asian financial crisis.

"I can't see a sign of resilience at the moment," said Fan, who is skeptical about the effectiveness of the US bailout plan.

(HK Edition 02/17/2009 page16)