TAIPEI: Health authorities urged the public yesterday not to panic over the A (H1N1) influenza situation, in the wake of a forecast that put the projected fatalities from the new flu strain in Taiwan at 7,000.

Department of Health (DOH) chief Yaung Chih-liang, who serves concurrently as head of the Central Epidemics Command Center (CECC), pointed out that most A (H1N1) cases recorded in Taiwan so far have been mild infections and that only a minority of patients have developed serious complications.

"The public should be careful, but there is no need to panic," Yaung said.

Noting that epidemiologists around the world have made various predictions on the development of A (H1N1) outbreaks, Yaung said the CECC is not going to comment on any of them.

On Tuesday, Academia Sinica scholar Chen Chien-jen, who is a former head of health, predicted that the outbreak is likely to affect one third of Taiwan's population. With a hypothetical death rate of 0.1 percent, the outbreak could result in 7,000 deaths, Chen said.

Addressing the issue yesterday, Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Director-General Steve Kuo said the prediction was probably based on a previous forecast by the World Health Organization that the new flu strain could infect one third of the world's population.

Although the new strain is currently responsible for one third of flu infections in Taiwan, it "would be too imprecise" to infer that one third of Taiwan's population would become infected, Kuo said.

The CDC's tracking of the disease has shown that in the past week, approximately 7,000 people per day sought medical attention with flu-like symptoms.

Of that number, 2,100, or 29 percent, were found to be infected with A (H1N1) flu.

The CDC estimates that the total number of people in Taiwan infected with the virus has reached 40,000.

As of Wednesday, 47 severe infections had been recorded in Taiwan, five of which have resulted in death, Kuo said. Ten of these 47 patients are still in hospital, while 32 have recovered and have been discharged, he added.

These figures demonstrate that most A (H1N1) infections are mild and that most severe infections are curable, he said.

According to virologist Michael Ming-chiao Lai of National Cheng Kung University, the public should not be scared, because the severity of A (N1H1) is similar to seasonal flu.

The lack of immunity among the majority of people is what has increased the virus's epidemic potential, Lai explained.

China Daily/CNA

(HK Edition 08/27/2009 page2)