HONG KONG: Hong Kong's composite consumer price index (CPI) in September rose for the first time after a three-month fall, yet the index still remains negative when netting out the government's one-off relief measures.

Overall consumer prices rose 0.5 percent last month over a year earlier, following the 1.6 percent fall in August, the Census and Statistics Department said yesterday.

The underlying CPI, excluding the government's relief measures, was minus 0.3 percent, the same as that in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average monthly rate of change for the period from July to September was minus 0.3 percent as well.

A government spokesman said the headline consumer price inflation reverted to positive, as some households have already used up the full amount of the government's one-off electricity charge subsidy, which gave a boost to the overall CPI last month.

"Netting out the effects of the one-off measures, the underlying inflation rate remained slightly negative, as local cost pressures were contained and imported inflation was virtually absent," he said, adding that the upward pressure on consumer prices should remain weak in the coming months.

The utility prices in September, including electricity, gas and water, all increased 23.4 percent year on year, followed by 23 percent jump in alcohol and tobacco, and 4.5 percent increase in clothing and footwear.

Durable goods prices, however, recorded a year-on-year 3 percent decline, while prices for transport and food, excluding meals bought away from home, dropped 2.3 percent and 2 percent respectively.

Taking the first nine months of this year together, the CPI slightly rose 0.2 percent year on year. In the third quarter of 2009, the index fell 0.9 percent over a year earlier.

For the 12 months ending September, the composite CPI was on average 0.8 percent higher than in the preceding 12-month period.

Chong Tai-leung, an associate professor in the economics department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said consumer prices have started to stabilize in August and September, while he expects overall consumer prices to remain slightly positive in October.

"The recent upsurge in local property prices may boost rental prices, which will also push the composite CPI up," Chong said.

He predicted that the overall CPI may drop 1 to 2 percent this year, followed by a remarkable rebound in 2010.

"The loose monetary policy in the US and the global economic recovery are likely to trigger inflation in Hong Kong in 2010," Chong said, yet he added that the inflation will remain slight, with less than a 4 percent jump in the overall consumer prices.

(HK Edition 10/23/2009 page3)