TAIPEI: Taiwan's exports climbed for the first time in 15 months in November as the global economic recovery spurred demand for mobile phones and computers.

Overseas shipments gained 19.4 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 4.7 percent decline in October, the finance authorities said in Taipei yesterday. The median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 19.3 percent increase. Imports rose 17.9 percent last month for a trade surplus of $2.11 billion.

A recovery in exports, which account for more than two-thirds of Taiwan's economy, may help the island emerge from a yearlong recession. Overseas shipments fell by the most in seven years in November 2008 as the financial crisis slashed demand, making a low base for comparison.

"The first increase in exports since August 2008 is due largely to base effect as well as a pickup in shipments to the US and Europe ahead of the Christmas festive season," said Tony Phoo, a Taipei-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc.

Companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's largest custom chipmaker, forecast fourth-quarter sales will increase as much as 43 percent from a year earlier.

Improving exports are needed to sustain Asia's emergence from the world recession after the region's governments pumped more than $950 billion into their economies and cut interest rates to revive growth.

Export growth is likely to show a large increase in December due to the substantial decline 12 months earlier, Lin Lee-jen, director of the Finance Ministry's statistics bureau, said in a briefing in Taipei yesterday. Lin said exports to the US and Japan will probably resume rising in December.

She reaffirmed that 2009 exports are likely to fall 20.3 percent from a year earlier.

The improvement in demand for Taiwan's exports adds to signs the global economy is recovering after the US grew last quarter for the first time in more than a year and Europe's services and manufacturing industries expanded at the fastest pace in two years in November.

Shipments to the mainland, Taiwan's biggest overseas market, rose 56 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 9.8 percent gain in October, external trade officials said. Shipments to the US declined 5.8 percent, after dropping 16.5 percent in October, while sales to Europe rose 3.9 percent compared with a decline of 11 percent.

Beijing's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package is spurring domestic demand. Its economy expanded 8.9 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in a year, boosting sales for Taiwan electronics makers including HTC Corp, the world's largest producer of handsets using Microsoft Corp's Windows Mobile operating system.

Taiwan's central bank said in September it plans to maintain low borrowing costs to help pull the economy out of recession. Gross domestic product shrank 1.29 percent in the three months ended September 30 from a year earlier, after contracting 6.85 percent in the second quarter. The statistics bureau yesterday reported consumer prices fell 1.59 percent in November.

Central bank Governor Perng Fai-nan has cut the benchmark interest rate seven times since late September 2008 to a record 1.25 percent. The bank will hold its quarterly policy meeting on December 24.

Exports of electronic products including semiconductors rose 34.1 percent last month after rising 5.5 percent in October, yesterday's report showed.

China Daily/CNA

(HK Edition 12/08/2009 page2)