Job applicants fill out forms at a job fair in Hong Kong. The city's unemployment rate stood at 4.2 percent from July to September. Jerome Favre / Bloomberg

July-September jobless rate of 4.2 percent unchanged from June-August

The city's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2 percent in the July to September period.

The underemployment numbers for the same period also remained unchanged from the previous June to August reporting period at 1.9 percent.

The government said that it will remain vigilant and monitor the developments of the local labor market closely. Meanwhile, local economists are optimistic that the local unemployment rate will drop to below 4 percent by the end of this year.

According to statistics released by the Census and Statistics Department, decreases in the unemployment rate were mainly observed in postal and courier activities, manufacturing and hotels sectors, while increases were more apparent in cleaning and similar activities, wholesale, as well as the information and communications sectors.

As for the underemployment rate, decreases were mainly seen in the foundation and superstructure, as well as manufacturing sectors, offsetting increases in the decoration, repair and maintenance of buildings, as well as postal and courier activities sectors.

In July to September, total employment increased by around 8,000 and the labor force expanded by around 2,400 over the same period of time, making the number of unemployed persons decrease by about 5,700.

Youth unemployment - in the 15 to 24 age group - went up slightly by 0.3 percentage point to 14.8 percent owing to a larger increase in youth labor supply than employment. The government, however, expects that the pressure on youth employment will ease in the near term as many summer workers will return to school after the commencement of the new academic year in September.

Secretary for Labor and Welfare Matthew Cheung noted that as total employment has increased for the fourth consecutive month - reaching the highest level since the reporting period of November 2008 to January 2009 - this indicates a sustained growth in labor demand alongside the economic recovery. The decrease in the numbers of unemployed is also the reflection of a steadily improving local employment situation.

"The employment outlook will hinge on the pace of economic growth and job creation.While the overall economic performance remains strong and business sentiment is still generally positive in hiring new hands, thereby enabling the labor market to remain stable, the slow economic recovery in the US and the ongoing Eurozone debt problem have added to uncertainties in economic prospects," Cheung said.

He added that the administration will continue to be vigilant and monitor developments closely.

Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Economist Kelvin Lau told the China Daily that owing to the improvement of the local economy, the ultra low interest rate environment, the influx of mainland tourists and the willingness by corporations to increase headcounts, the local unemployment rate will be able to drop to below 4 percent by the end of this year.

"We expect the employment situation in industries such as construction, infrastructure and retail will gradually improve as they are relatively more supported by the boom in the domestic economy," Lau said.

Cheng Yuk-shing, an associate professor of economics of Hong Kong Baptist University, said that as the local economy will improve because of capital inflows, he expects the unemployment rate to exhibit a declining trend in the following months.

"We expect the local property, securities and tourism sectors will benefit from the improvement in the local economy due to capital inflows," he said.

However, Cheng cautioned that if the US reverts to raising interest rates, the local economy could suffer that and may lead to a rise in the unemployment rate.

China Daily

(HK Edition 10/20/2010 page2)