Cars are reflected in the windows of a building in Hong Kong. S&P sees only a limited impact on the earnings prospects and stability of Hong Kong's banking system. Antony Dickson / AFP

S&P is still 'concerned' despite citing risk controls

S&P, the global ratings agency, said that it sees only a limited impact on the earnings prospects and stability of Hong Kong's banking system from a potential correction in the housing market, citing effective risk controls.

However, it remains concerned.

"Exacerbating our concerns in Hong Kong is that loan growth by major banks has been extremely strong," S&P said in an industry report released on Tuesday. "While we will continue to monitor developments, we currently consider the underlying credit risk to be largely mitigated by major banks' risk-management expertise, adequacy of collateral, and prudent and proactive regulatory measures."

Ryan Tsang, a Hong Kongbased credit analyst with S&P, thinks that even though property prices are likely to fall, it will not have a large impact on banks' asset quality.

"We don't see a sharp price correction as posing a longterm problem to the banking sector" said Tsang, who recalled that back in the years from 1997 to 2003 when home prices slumped 70 percent, the delinquency ratio ?C the total amount of loans overdue for more than three months to total outstanding loans ?C was below 2 percent.

Home prices have surged more than 70 percent since the start of 2009, exceeding the 1997 pre-Asian financial crisis peak, on record low interest rates and an influx of buyers from mainland China.

Government offi cials have consistently expressed concerns about the property market and have rolled out a number of incremental measures including a transaction tax, increases in the minimum down payment, and boosting land supply to contain risks.

Financial Secretary John Tsang wrote in his official blog on June 19 that "the current market situation is abnormal. It is difficult to predict the outlook of the property market but one thing for sure is that risks are increasing continuously. We have no hesitation in increasing the intensity of the measures if necessary."

Prior to that, the HongKong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said in its quarterly report that Hong Kong faces the risks of "over-stretching" in the commercial and industrial property markets.

The city's de facto central bank on June 10 ordered local banks to again tighten the down-payment ratio for home buyers and raised the bar for overseas purchasers. Earlier in April, the HKMA asked banks operating in the city to submit their business plans and funding strategies for the remainder of 2011, due to worries about a creditfueled property bubble risk.

S&P said that while high concentration in propertyrelated lending has been a long-existent risk for major banks in Hong Kong, potential credit losses are limited and would likely arise from lending to smaller developers, who are more vulnerable to a sharp home price decline.

Another concern comes from mainland-related lending, which S&P is "particularly interested in monitoring."

The ratings agency estimates that around 60 percent of new lending by Hong Kong banks to mainland-related borrowers is collateralized by deposits or bank guarantees across the border. Th e exact amount of such loans, however, is not publicly disclosed on a bank-by-bank basis, S&P added.

joyli@chinadailyhk.com

China Daily

(HK Edition 06/29/2011 page2)