Social development requires excellent order, especially for Hong Kong, a highly-developed and densely populated metropolis with limited land resources. This is why the regulation of mass activities such as protest marches and rallies has long been established in the form of law. Such a law is necessary to keep mass actions under reasonable control so that the normal social order and people's daily life will not be disrupted too much.

Hong Kong's economy is characterized by free trade, the government's laissez-faire policy. The city is also a major service economy, with all around and comprehensive business connection with the Chinese mainland and the rest of the world, but highly concentrated in certain CBDs. All these characteristics require an exceptionally high standard for social order. Without doubt, Central is of most vital importance to the whole city. Therefore, the normal life of practically all Hong Kong residents and visitors will be turned upside down or annoyingly affected when the business district is paralyzed by "Occupy Central".

The radical movement will no doubt seriously destabilize society and public order because it aims to achieve exactly that by paralyzing traffic in Central with a big crowd without police permission. The masterminds behind the illegal mass campaign have announced unmistakably that "Occupy Central" is designed to block traffic in Central and eventually paralyze the central business district with devastating impact on public order and local residents' daily life, as well as that of hundreds of thousands of people who work in, visit or travel through Central frequently. The daily volume of vehicle flow through Central is more than 500,000, which will become extremely slow, if not static, when "Occupy Central" materializes. Buses and taxis in particular will have to be re-routed or canceled until the blocked streets are reopened.

Francis T. Lui, economic professor from HKUST, claimed that one-fifth of Hong Kong's GDP, approximately HK$2 trillion, yields from Central. Hong Kong will lose HK$1.6 billion per day, if Central is occupied. He said those who opt for civil disobedience might go to Victoria Park rather than Central. He fiercely rebukes "if they pay no regard of social and economic cost, what is the discrepancy between 'Occupy Central' campaigners and terrorists?"

An ill-motivated mass protest such as "Occupy Central" is very likely to trigger violent confrontation between the participants and inconvenienced bystanders and/or even among participants of different political factions within the "occupying" crowd. Bloodshed will almost certainly happen when disagreement turns to push and shove and eventually into brawl. The riot in London in 2011 led to multiple deaths and left 186 police officers injured in addition to billions of pounds in various losses. The "Occupy Wall Street" movement in New York City the same year also saw some violent episodes despite efforts by both participants and police authorities to prevent such escalations. An opinion poll conducted among Hong Kong-based businesses in April showed 41.3 percent of the corporate respondents believed "Occupy Central" would "seriously damage" public order and another 39.1 percent thought it would "damage" public order in Hong Kong. That means 80.4 percent of all the respondents expected the illegal campaign to disrupt public order in Hong Kong one way or another.

The aftermath of "Occupy Central" will be felt long afterwards. Tai Yiu-ting, a law scholar at the University of Hong Kong and first to announce the idea, has said publicly more than once that bloodshed cannot be ruled out when "Occupy Central" happens, because it is meant to shock and awe like a "nuclear explosion" and "will be followed by a variety of non-cooperative movements" that will "paralyze Hong Kong and make it very hard to rule afterwards." "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung, the poster boy of radicalism in Hong Kong, was even more straightforward when he vowed publicly that "Occupy Central" will be a new beginning rather than the end of mass confrontations in the years to come. Its damaging effects will not be limited to one place or one period of time. It will raise the curtain for numerous attempts to take public interest hostage for political ransom with illegal mass movements that are bound to trigger violent confrontation and even citywide riot. Apparently the masterminds of "Occupy Central" are prepared to plunge Hong Kong into endless chaos for their own political profit at the expense of the society as a whole. Their evil intent is now fully exposed to the public.

The author is a current affairs commentator.

(HK Edition 05/31/2013 page9)