The organizers of "Occupy Central" held their "Deliberation Day" on June 9 with nearly 700 people attending, but some 600 of them were supporters of the illegal campaign and fewer than 100 are local residents randomly selected by the organizers. Academically speaking, the gathering is so far away from the original Deliberation Day concept put forward by American scholars James Fishkin and Bruce Ackerman it is more a strategic meeting of "Occupy" advocates than anything else.

Fake as it is, the so-called Deliberation Day should not be brushed aside as a useless knockoff, because the decisions reached at the meeting are strategic moves to be taken when the illegal campaign gets underway. Particularly noteworthy is the plan to turn it from a "fan club" into a citywide popular movement. Make no mistake about it: such a development is only natural, given the fact that "Occupy" was born a social movement focused on an issue that concerns all Hong Kong society and the change is only quantitative, not qualitative.

"Occupy" relies on two factors to become a citywide popular movement and win much greater public support than it has now. One is the government plan for the 2017 Chief Executive (CE) Election by universal suffrage and the other is what the SAR government and pro-establishment camp have to say about "Occupy". So far the performers in the drama are just a few activists and some prominent opposition political figures.

In Hong Kong, where abiding by the law is a core value, the pro-establishment parties are of course against "Occupy", while most non-partisan citizens are also opposed to it. Even many people who voted for opposition candidates in elections have considerable reservations about seeking universal suffrage by illegal means, especially when the government has yet to present its 2017 CE Election by universal suffrage draft plan for public consultation. Therefore it could be an opportunity for the opposition camp to kick their propaganda drive to popularize "Occupy" into high gear when the government unveils its plan for the 2017 CE Election by universal suffrage.

Meanwhile, comments by the SAR government and pro-establishment parties regarding "Occupy" are testing Hong Kong residents' judgment as well. Given CE Leung Chun-ying's relatively low rate of public approval these days, everything he does and every word he says can easily annoy some people. The pro-establishment parties on the other hand have their own dilemma to deal with. Now that the opposition camp has practically declared war on the SAR government, the pro-establishment side can avoid making mistakes by keeping silent, but can lose its say on the issue and become increasingly passive. Also, the government may lose another battle against the opposition if it sticks to stressing "Occupy" is illegal but cannot present a complete analysis of its theoretical flaws regarding universal suffrage.

The opposition camp understands "Occupy" needs more time to foment in order to expand, which means the longer the government takes to announce its plan for the next stage of constitutional reform the more time it is giving the opposition. If the campaign gets to spread out, the economy may not be hit immediately, but the local society will no doubt be even more divided. Past experiences tell us the supporters of the opposing sides became even more hostile toward each other after each conflict while the neutral citizens felt disappointed by the government for failure to prevent the incident from flaring up. More importantly, the central authorities may be forced to reassess Hong Kong's political situation and how their attitude toward Hong Kong may become less clear in the future. If Beijing tightens its Hong Kong policies in response to "Occupy" it will not be a good thing for either side.

The development of "Occupy" is different from any social movement we have seen before. Compared with those against the construction of the high-speed railway and the Northeastern New Territories development plan it has already whipped up popular angst before a detailed plan is published. This is apparently due to the opposition and its supporters' distrust for the central government, which stems from historical causes as well as differences between the political cultures of Hong Kong and the mainland. The opposition's successful propaganda over the years also deserves some credit for it. Anyway, if "Occupy" is not handled properly the relations between the central government and Hong Kong's opposition camp will enter an "ice age" while the SAR government's administration will suffer greater obstacles.

The author is a committee member of the Hong Kong Association of Young Commentators.

(HK Edition 06/20/2013 page9)