Hong Kong's birthrate dropped below replacement level some 20 years ago and has continued to decline since. This worrisome trend has finally caught the full attention of the government and the public. There is now hope that some light can be shed on how to counter this trend in the public debate on the government population policy consultation paper.

I am sure most Hong Kong people know the reasons behind the falling birthrate. Like me, they are the ones who knowingly created this trend. After getting married, neither me nor my wife wanted to give up our respective careers. Having children was never considered until we were in our late 20s. Even then, we made a pact of having only one child.

Some social experts have laid the blame for the low birthrate on the high housing cost. Others complained that inadequate social security has forced married couples to prioritize savings for old age above procreation. There are some who contend that Hong Kong's deteriorating environment and worsening air pollution have combined to discourage parenthood.

Indeed, the list of perceived causes is long. Every time I met her - a young mother among my friends in Hong Kong, she never missed a chance to complain about the high cost of sending her only child to a private school. I guess she has never considered having a second child. That would probably have crushed her financially.

It's hard to understand why so many mothers among Hong Kong's upper-middle class families have such a low opinion of public schools that are free. The young mother I talked to explained that children get more attention at private schools, and that's important because she and her husband are usually too busy to spend time with their child.

Maybe personal ambition is the crux of the low birthrate issue. People in Hong Kong, like those in many other large cities, feel that they need to work hard to advance in a highly competitive environment. I know that the birthrate in Shanghai, where I live, is also falling at an alarming rate, and I am sure that the same trend is taking hold in Singapore, New York, London or Paris.

It makes no sense to compare Hong Kong, a city, with other countries, notably those in northern Europe, which are having some success in reversing the low birthrate trend. It's not just a matter of housing, the environment or even education. If you live and work in a large city, you feel the pressure to move ahead. That pressure is particularly intense for Hong Kong people because they have little to fall back on, and immigration is never an attractive choice.

Making housing more affordable than it is now may help a little. But when the average price of housing begins to fall, many families will simply find a bigger and better place for the same money. Even with a much more comprehensive public housing scheme, Singapore has made little headway in convincing its people to have more children.

Those parents who complain that Hong Kong doesn't have a "family-friendly" environment should try to bring their children to anyone of the many country parks on a fine day to spend some "quality" time together. If they can't find time to do that, then nobody can help. Fresh air and open space are too much a luxury to ask in any crowded and busy city.

Hong Kong spends about HK$80 billion, or 4.4 percent of GDP, each year on education. That may seem low in proportion to the size of the economy. It is important to take note of the low tax structure that confines government spending. As a result, education spending accounts for 19 percent of total government expenditure. Of course, the government can spend a bit more on education. But that's not going to do much in changing the attitude of parents who insist on sending their children to private schools.

The available options are limited while the population is aging fast. Opening the door to the right immigrants may be the only way to address the issue.

The author is a current affairs commentator.

(HK Edition 10/30/2013 page9)