Editor's Note: This article is Part 2 of a three-part series on Occupy Central. Part 1 examined Occupy Central's logic for civil disobedience. Part 2 looks into the dangers of violence and causes of youth dissatisfaction with life in Hong Kong. Part 3 will suggest policies to address these causes of conflict and better ways to lobby for reforms.

While the organizers of "Occupy Central" only want adult participants, they have discovered young people aged 18 to 30 and even children in their teens (Scholarism) who want to participate.

Indeed, it is mainly young people who have swamped the third "Deliberation Day" (D-Day 3). They have left organizers with only three "choices", the most radical plans, to present to voters this month. Since the organizers agreed to adopt a plan which gets the majority of votes as the bottom line demand for their reform proposals, they are stuck with defending plans which insist on the public nomination of a Chief Executive candidate. This is despite many other proposals from the pan-democratic camp which do not have these requirements.

Make no mistake. However many votes are cast, the vast majority are not votes to push Hong Kong into conflict. Radicals might fantasize about hundreds of thousands willing to defy police and go to jail, but these are not votes which will do that - not for the sake of public nomination.

Both the Law Society and central government consider public nomination to be outside the requirements of the Basic Law for a "broadly representative" Nominating Committee to put forward candidates for direct election.

Thus, the radicals have ensured compromise is almost impossible to achieve.

Many pan-democratic camp reform plans address how to make the Nominating Committee more representative. They, therefore, increase the legitimacy of the Nominating Committee as part of the election process. The composition of the committee and processes for nomination are where rational discussion and fair compromise can be worked out. There is no need for conflict if the composition of the Nominating Committee and the process is deemed fair by a majority of Hong Kong people.

This is where the danger of things getting out of control originates.

The adult organizers of "Occupy Central" know they can compromise with the central government - even at the last minute - if the processes of nomination provide a fair means for nominating candidates. But they have now boxed themselves into a corner with no room left for compromise. They must stick to demanding public nomination - and nothing less.

It's all or nothing for them now. Thus, they leave the government with little choice but to subdue the demonstrations.

Unfortunately impressionable, idealistic young people, caught up in the romance of rebellion, may end up paying a heavy price. A police record can have severe consequences, however high-minded the reason. And that's why organizers want only adults, those who understand the potential consequences associated with "Occupy Central" and are ready to accept them.

Most of these adults are retired or self-employed. An arrest would have little effect on them. But things are very different for young people.

With young people - particularly large numbers of frustrated, dissatisfied youth - involved in a confrontation which is sure to be suppressed, things are much more likely to get out of hand.

So why are young people so unhappy that they would risk a police record, which may damage their lives and future opportunities?

Unfortunately, the most radical elements within LegCo have led the fight for instigating a pension system. But Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah, in his most recent budget address, said the government would have to spend less on elderly people and would shift more of the burden of caring for them onto families.

Rightly or not, young Hong Kong-born people perceive their mainland-born counterparts as increasingly dominating post-graduate programs. They also see significant numbers of mainland students studying as undergraduates in Hong Kong universities. Both undergraduates and post-graduates from the mainland invariably try to stay in Hong Kong after graduation. Many of them compete directly with young Hongkongers in the labor market.

They also believe their wages are driven down by mainland competition, which might also explain some of their hostility to mainlanders.

This is why a majority under the age of 40, and particularly under 30, are dissatisfied with life in Hong Kong. In contrast, only a third over the age of 40 are dissatisfied. Some 90 percent of students are dissatisfied with the performance of the Hong Kong government.

Yet only the most radical members of LegCo seem to be talking about the plight of the elderly and the consequences of mainland competition. So our local young people, naturally, gravitate to those who appear to care about these issues.

These radicals are the ones urging young people to join them in the "Occupy Central" campaign.

The author is director of the Masters in Public Administration Program and professor of Government and International Studies at the Hong Kong Baptist University.

(HK Edition 06/26/2014 page9)