Hong Kong residents should be able to elect the Chief Executive (CE) by one person, one vote in less than three years' time. But whether or not this will ultimately happen depends on the opposition camp. The reason is simple: the opposition insists on unconstitutional, illegal demands for "public nomination" in contravention of the Basic Law. So the chances of implementing universal suffrage in the 2017 CE election may be jeopardized unless the opposition camp abandons its unconstitutional demands.

The National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) explained this in 2004 by referring to Article 45 of the Basic Law. This outlines the methods for selecting the CE in 2017 and for forming the 2016 Legislative Council (LegCo). This process will involve five steps:

1. The CE presents a formal report to the NPCSC, asking the national legislative body to decide whether it is necessary to amend relevant decisions of the NPCSC. These concern the implementation of universal suffrage in the 2017 CE election according to Article 45 of the Basic Law.

2. The NPCSC then makes a decision in accordance with Articles 45 and 68 of the Basic Law. This decision is to be made in the light of conditions in Hong Kong at that time and in order that political progress proceeds in an orderly, gradual manner.

3. The HKSAR government presents a bill requesting amendments by the NPCSC on the method for selecting the CE in 2017 and forming the LegCo in 2016. The bill must be approved by a two-thirds majority in LegCo.

4. The CE then endorses the government bill subsequent to its approval by LegCo.

5. The CE then presents the LegCo-approved bill to the NPCSC for final approval.

But political progress in Hong Kong is being affected by opposition tactics. They have used filibusters to delay a number of important developments concerning Hong Kong's economy and people's livelihoods. This has been at the expense of public resources.

Despite this, the SAR government formed the Task Force on Constitutional Development (TFCD) headed by Chief Secretary for Administration Carrie Lam. On Dec 4 last year, the TFCD began its five-month public consultation to assess public opinion on the implementation of universal suffrage in Hong Kong, according to Article 45 of the Basic Law.

During this public consultation process the TFCD received a total of 124,700 letters from the public on the subject of constitutional development. Following the public consultation the TFCD spent a further two months compiling the views of the public into a report for the CE. More opinions were collected while the TFCD report was being drafted, meaning that the public consultation took over five months - two months longer than the one conducted in 2007 - what more could anyone ask!

The five steps will take some time to complete. It is impossible to estimate how long Step 3 will take. Even after this more time will inevitably be needed because the SAR has never attempted anything like this before. This may mean political candidates won't have much time to prepare for election campaigns. Voters will therefore have less information from which to choose their preferred candidates. That will be unfair on candidates and voters alike. This is why CE Leung Chun-ying presented his report to the NPCSC on July 15 to initiate the first of the five steps.

However, after Leung presented his report, some opposition lawmakers published articles in newspapers criticizing him. They suggested that although the CE had refused to delay his report to the NPCSC, the latter should postpone its decision until October instead of August, at the time of its scheduled annual session.

Benny Tai, one of the organizers of "Occupy Central" then threatened to launch the "Occupy Central" campaign at once if the NPCSC refuses to delay its decision.

It wouldn't have come as a surprise to many that Tai dismissed 124,700 letters from Hong Kong society and seven months of public consultation as meaningless garbage, while giving orders to the highest body of State power! Who does he think he is?

Does the opposition camp actually expect the NPCSC to delay its decision merely to please the "pan-democrats"? They should stop dreaming!

The problem is that in the past seven months they have paid little attention to the public consultation. Instead they have been busy staging an "Occupy Central" rehearsal and a meaningless "referendum" over their own unconstitutional plans centered on "public nomination". This is in violation of the Basic Law.

During his meeting with government officials and various Hong Kong party representatives in Shenzhen last weekend, Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the NPCSC, reaffirmed that the central government supports Hong Kong in achieving universal suffrage.

However, he warned that attempts to blackmail Beijing with the "Occupy Central" campaign will fail. He sent opposition lawmakers a clear message about this.

It is amusing that certain opposition lawmakers are now calling for "dialogue to achieve consensus" and "mutual compromise to reach an agreement". Politics is the art of compromise or making concessions, but has the opposition made any? No, never! The "pan-democrats" appear to be gambling that they will be able to intimidate the central government into accepting "public nomination" by threatening "Occupy Central" - but this will never happen.

The author is a senior journalist.

(HK Edition 07/23/2014 page9)