With strong vitality in the technology sector and a sound industry chain, Shenzhen may surpass Hong Kong in economic size in the near future. But it remains to be seen who will ultimately emerge as the winner, given Hong Kong's core advantages over top mainland cities, such as a free-market economy and a low-tax system. Asia News Photo

Shenzhen has surpassed Guangzhou as Guangdong province's most modernized city, but researchers say it still has a long way to go to beat the provincial capital to become the mainland's third major city.

According to a report by the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences (GASS), Shenzhen ranked first in terms of overall level of modernization among cities in the province in 2013, followed by Guangzhou and Zhuhai.

The report, released on April 27, based its conclusion on five indicators - economic development, social development, living quality, ecological environment and technological education.

Shenzhen topped them all in economic development, ecological environment and technological education, while Zhuhai is the best in social development, and Dongguan has the highest quality of living. Guangzhou's performance, by comparison, was humble, beating Shenzhen only in social development.

Shenzhen's rapid development has sparked concerns that it may soon replace Guangzhou as the mainland's third major city, altering the current lineup of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

Researchers, however, are conservative, saying the existing rankings are hard to break, given Shenzhen's limited space.

"If measured by 'soft indicators', Shenzhen's position is stronger (than Guangzhou)," Guo Wanda, executive vice-president of a Shenzhen-based think tank China Development Institute, told China Daily. "Shenzhen's capacity in technological innovation is strong. Private enterprises are active, and the city has a sound industry chain."

Zheng Fenming, head of the GASS Modernization Strategy Research Institute, said Guangdong falls behind Beijing and Shanghai in independent innovation. In 2013, expenses on research and development (R&D) in the province only accounted for 2.32 percent of its GDP, far less than Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsu with 6.08 percent, 3.6 percent and 2.51 percent, respectively.

"Low investment in R&D has led to poor competitiveness in industries across the province."

Some people in Hong Kong are worried that the SAR's competitiveness may be eroded by its neighbor. "Shenzhen's GDP was only 20 percent of Hong Kong's 12 years ago. But now, it has risen to 90 percent. In terms of economic size, it's likely that Shenzhen will surpass Hong Kong in the next few years," Guo said. "But, as for competitiveness, Hong Kong has its core advantages, like a free-market economy and a low-tax system. It remains to be seen who will ultimately emerge as the winner," he added.

sally@chinadailyhk.com

(HK Edition 05/12/2015 page1)