Bad weather put the Hong Kong Observatory and Education Bureau in trouble yet again as angry parents complained about late no-class notices from the government following red warnings of heavy thunderstorms and flooding by the observatory on Tuesday. People may feel frustrated because it happens almost every year and there seems to be no hope of putting an end to such "madness".

In all fairness we believe scientists at the observatory are doing their best to provide accurate weather forecasts. But people also need to understand that meteorology has never been a precise science and most likely never will be. No one in their right mind should assume human beings can predict the ever-changing moods of Mother Nature. But we have good reason to believe we will be able to make more accurate weather forecasts as more advanced scientific means become available. Until then, however, we must rely on what we have at present to handle any "surprise" from "heaven" as best we can.

There is no proof the existing protocol for issuing a class suspension notice due to bad weather is scientifically unsound, which leaves the observatory and Education Bureau little room for markedly earlier warnings and an immediate decision to cancel classes in affected districts if not the whole city. It would not be fair to blame either the observatory or the Education Bureau, or both, simply because some students have already left for school when a no-class notice is announced. Besides, many parents would also be upset if class cancellations proved premature, because they make them miss work and fork out money for nothing.

The term "move heaven and earth" should not be taken literally. The same applies to weather forecasting because it is not a precise science. We are confident progress in science and technology will help meteorology become more accurate, but that takes time and a lot of effort. Right now the observatory and Education Bureau can and should work on making the existing notification protocol more efficient. The latter may also consider allowing schools to make decisions on their own instead of waiting for government instructions. After all, the observatory webpage shows weather maps that are constantly updated as fresh satellite data come in all the time. And its supercomputer works non-stop to provide scientists with near- and intermediate-term weather pattern predictions. We have enough reasons to be optimistic.

(HK Edition 05/11/2016 page10)