2010-07-21 16:20

Chinese officials have been quick (and they may well be right) to reject a preliminary report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) which suggests that China had surpassed the United States as the world's biggest energy consumer last year.

If the IEA data on China's energy use is unreliable - as an official with the National Energy Administration claimed on Tuesday - this Paris-based organization's interpretation must be open to debate.

According to the IEA, China consumed 2.252 billion tons of oil equivalent in 2009, compared to the US' 2.17 billion tons. Such a small difference in energy consumption, which is of course subject to revision, can hardly be touted as conclusive.

Doubts over the accuracy of the preliminary data notwithstanding, the clear trends point to the world's most populous nation inching up to becoming the world's top energy user.

Given that the average American still burns five times as much energy annually as the average Chinese citizen does, any serious study about China's energy consumption should focus on determining the driving force behind the country's increasing energy needs.

For Chinese policymakers, a cause for concern is that the nation's rise as a global manufacturing power and its urbanization involve massive energy-intensive heavy industry and infrastructure building. But the pace of such expansion will slow and better energy efficiency will certainly help.

The more demanding task for the Chinese government will be to tame domestic consumers' appetite for American lifestyle, which is too energy consuming to be sustainable for China.

For instance, China replaced the US as the world's largest auto market last year. Though Chinese cars get better mileage on average than American cars, the rapid growth of car ownership in China can easily burn out whatever energy efficiency gains available in theory.

One-billion-plus Chinese consumers hold the key to future energy security. While they are expected to consume more, for the good of both the Chinese economy and global recovery, careful thought is needed on how they should be encouraged to follow a low-carbon modern lifestyle as quickly as possible.