Noda left to fish in murky waters

Yoshihiko Noda compared himself to a loach, an unattractive, bottom-feeding fish, when he was appointed Japanese prime minister less than 13 months ago. He was proud of the fish's qualities to handle the muck.

His surprise announcement to dissolve the lower house on Dec 16 has left his Democratic Party of Japan in chaos and caused an exodus of its lawmakers, with nine quitting the ruling party on Thursday and Friday in protest over Noda's decision.

This means the DPJ - with 239 seats - no longer has a majority in the 480-seat lower house, going into the election.

Noda promised leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito in August that he would dissolve the House of Representatives "sometime soon" in exchange for their support in passing his key bill to hike sales tax. But with no dissolution in sight three months on, he had found himself routinely labeled a "liar" by the opposition.

By relieving himself of this burden, he has influenced minds and morale of his party members who appear ill-prepared for the upcoming lower house election. The DPJ has been slow to compile a manifesto for the poll, with a draft reportedly due by the end of this month.

The manifesto is understood to include six areas as guiding principles, including "ending reliance on nuclear power generation" and "defense-oriented security and foreign policy based on the Japan-US alliance".

However, some party members have voiced concern over whether it can be compiled in time for the lower house election.

The delay stems from the party's difficulty in working out how to evaluate the implementation of key policies in its 2009 manifesto, and how to explain its findings to the public.

On Nov 10 Noda said he intended to include Japan's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade talks in the new manifesto. However, as there is strong opposition to the idea within the party, the issue could further complicate efforts to compile the manifesto.

Pundits are placing their bets on the LDP in the Dec 16 general election, saying the DPJ is running a huge risk of being booted out of office three years after wresting power from the LDP.

As the nation prepares to vote, DPJ executives are busy calling for party unity, apparently worried about the growing number of deserters.

At a Standing Officers Council meeting on Tuesday, DPJ Vice-President Hirotaka Akamatsu said the party's candidates would be defeated unless they showed a competitive spirit in the election.

Party confidence is being eroded by fears that it will suffer a crushing defeat. The approval rating of Noda's cabinet plunged to 18 percent in latest media polls, a level that usually rings alarm bells over a prime minister's ability to stay in power.

In a sense, the Noda cabinet is preparing for a possible change of government. Ministries such as foreign affairs and defense are briefing the LDP about important policies, including Japan's territorial disputes with China.

On Wednesday, Vice-Minister of Defense Nagashima Akihisa said Japan and the United States will revise their defense cooperation guidelines early next month. Officials from the foreign ministry criticized Noda for his "sometime soon" promise in the summer to dissolve the lower house, saying they were finding it hard to schedule summit talks between the prime minister and foreign leaders.

Contact the writer at caihong@chinadaily.com.cn

The reporter is the Tokyo bureau chief of China Daily.