In 15 years, China's GDP will be number one, and other countries to emerge

And they're off. It won't happen as soon as others have predicted, but by 2028, China will surpass the US as the world's number one economy, according to a new set of GDP forecasts prepared by a British consultancy. And the ordering of the front-runners is headed for a major shake-up as well, with emerging economies making themselves heard.

Brazil, which briefly nosed ahead of the UK to become the world's 6th largest economy in 2011, but languished in slowing growth, weakened currency and political tensions, will make a comeback, according to the prestigious London-based economic think tank Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) in its annual World Economic League Table released this week.

"We see Brazil eventually overtaking the UK and Germany to become the world's 5th largest economy by 2023, driven by favourable demographics and strong agricultural trade boosted by the Doha round agreement and by genetically modified foods," the report said.

China's "spectacular economic development" continues and although it will inevitably slow, it is still projected to overtake the US to become the world's largest economy in 2028 "for the first time since 1890" - a result of not only economic growth stronger than the West's, but also the rise of the Chinese yuan, according to the report.

For the first time, CEBR has issued its predictions in 5-, 10- and 15-year intervals, in a report that outlines complex trends. Russia, for instance, currently in 8th place, will rise to 6th by 2018 but then slide back to 8th by 2023 and stay there through 2028, a performance the study attributes to lowered energy prices.

France will be one of the worst performing economies in the West, according to the report. Slow growth, high taxation and weak demand for exports will combine to slide France from its current rank of 5th down to 8th by 2018, 10th by 2023 and 13th by 2028.

In the same time frame of the next 15 years, Italy will drop from 9th to 15th, Germany from 4th to 6th, and Japan will hold on to its place in third up through 2023, eventually getting passed by India by 2028, with Brazil right behind in 5th, according to the report.

Among the other Latin American countries in the list of the top 30 GDPs, Mexico, currently in 14th place, will climb to 12th by 2018, hold the position through 2023 and rise further to 9th by 2028. The study attributes this projected outcome to "the continuing success of the US economy and the position of Mexico in providing cost effective production for the US market".

Argentina will hold its current rank as 26th through 2023, before sliding to 29th by 2028, thanks to "consistently bad economic management catch up", the report said.

"Within Latin America, Argentina is forecast to fall back relative to Brazil and Mexico and to be temporarily overtaken by Colombia in 2018 and 2023 - although on the assumption of economic reforms - Argentina overtakes [Colombia] again," the report said.

The authors of the report caution readers to take their forecasts with a grain of salt, explaining that they are based on three major criteria: real GDP growth forecast, an inflation forecast and a currency forecast. And while the first two are usually dependable within 1 or 2 percent, "currencies have a way of fairly wildly defying forecasters' predictions".

The best use of the numbers, they said, would be to nudge leaders to examine their comparative performance and realize none of it is written in stone. If the table "encourages governments to focus on achieving economic success and discourages them from populist gestures that make their economies less productive, we will feel satisfied that our analysis has had a beneficial effect".

Some of the more dramatic changes in the current list were South Africa dropping from 28th out of the top 30 (to 33rd) as strikes and weakening currency hobbled its economy; and Iran dropping from 21st to 30th as sanctions' bite sinks in. (Iran does not reappear in the top 30 again through 2028.)

And on the highlight of 2023, the report said: "India and Brazil are on the march. India up to 4th, Brazil to 5th", overtaking both the UK and Germany.

The authors could not resist a playful gibe: "In 2014," they write, "while the Football World Cup is held in Brazil, it still looks likely that Britain beat Brazil at something by still having a larger economy!"

Contact the writer at chrisdavis@chinadailyusa.com.